Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
Today
Let’s take a look at the MLB slate for Monday night. The teams with the highest implied run total are the: Chicago Cubs (5.45), Boston Red Sox (5.43), and the Milwaukee Brewers (4.90). The highest priced hitters on the slate are Mookie Betts, Charlie Blackmon, and Aaron Judge. The highest priced pitchers on the slate are Jake Arrieta, Charlie Morton, and Zack Greinke.
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Free Squares
- Jon Lester P CHC ($8,000)
- Jon Lester and the Chicago Cubs will take on the Colorado Rockies at home tonight. The Rockies have an implied total sitting at right around 4.05 runs and the Cubs are currently -182 favorites. Wrigley Field has been the 17th best hitters park this season. Lester has the following stats on the season so far this year: .226 wOBA given up to lefties, .334 wOBA given up to righties, 19.1 K%, 8.7 BB%, .247 BABIP, 29.6 Hard%, 4.56 SIERA, and a 4.65 xFIP. He will face the Colorado Rockies tonight who have had the following ranks vs. left-handed pitchers: 7th in BB%, 2nd in K%, 5th in OPS, 6th in ISO, 6th in wOBA, and a 12th in wRC+. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 20.164 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 2.52x value. Lester is a pretty sizeable favorite against a team who has struck out a lot against lefties this year. I love him as an SP2 on Draftkings tonight.
- Justin Smoak 1B TOR ($3,500)
- Justin Smoak and the Toronto Blue Jays will take on the Minnesota Twins and pitcher Lance Lynn tonight on the road tonight. The Blue Jays have an implied total sitting at right around 4.58 runs and they are currently +106 favorites. Smoak is likely going to be batting 3rd in the order tonight. Target Field has been the 21st best hitters park this season. Smoak has the following numbers vs. right-handed pitchers this season: 16.9 BB%, 26.8 K%, .692 OPS, .192 ISO, .216 BABIP, .307 wOBA, 89 wRC+, and a 33.3 Hard%. He faces Lance Lynn tonight who has the following numbers vs. left-handed batters: .477 wOBA, 15.2 K%, 21.2 BB%, .368 BABIP, 6.22 xFIP, and a 38.1 Hard%. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a DFS ARMY GRADE of 78.419. Smoak draws a favorable matchup against Lance Lynn tonight. I love his price and his upside batting in the 3 spot on Draftkings tonight.
- Andrew McCutchen OF SFG ($3,500)
- Andrew McCutchen and the San Francisco Giants will take on the San Diego Padres and pitcher Eric Lauer at home tonight. The Giants have an implied total sitting at right around 4.17 runs and they are currently -158 favorites. AT&T Park has been the number one hitter’s park this season. McCutchen is likely going to be batting 2nd in the order tonight. McCutchen has the following numbers on the season so far vs. left-handed pitching: 11.3 BB%, 24.5 K%, .666 OPS, .191 ISO, .219 BABIP, .295 wOBA, 88 wRC+, and a 50.0 Hard%. He will face Eric Lauer who had the following stats in one outing this season vs. right-handed batters: 7.7 K%, 30.0 BB%, .429 BABIP, 11.05 xFIP, and a 37.5 Hard%. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a DFS ARMY GRADE of 98.45. We don’t have a lot of data on Lauer but I think McCutchen and the Giants can get to him tonight. He’ll have a ton of opportunity tonight which makes him a nice upside outfielder on Draftkings tonight.
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Ultimate Free Square
We have a medium sized slate tonight with some solid tournaments across the industry. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Andrew McCutchen tonight! Good luck Army!
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