Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
Recap
Let’s take a look at how our free squares did last night. Our pitcher free square was Jake Arrieta who ended up with right around 18.15 DKFP which was good enough for 2.1x value. Our second free square of the night was Salvador Perez who ended up with right around 2 DKFP which was good enough for right around .8x value. Our outfielder free square was Matt Joyce who ended up with right around 0 DKFP.
Today
Let’s take a look at the MLB slate for Thursday afternoon. The teams with the highest implied run total are the: New York Yankees (5.55), Atlanta Braves (4.81), and the Philadelphia Phillies (4.4). The highest priced hitters on the slate are Aaron Judge, Freddie Freeman, and Paul Goldschmidt. The highest priced pitchers on the slate are Noah Syndergaard, Carlos Martinez, and Sean Newcomb.
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Free Squares
- Michael Fulmer P DET ($6,900)
- Michael Fulmer and the Detroit Tigers will take on the Pittsburgh Pirates on the road tonight. The Pirates have an implied total sitting at right around 4.30 runs and the Tigers are currently +146 underdogs. PNC Park was the 20th best hitters park last season. Fulmer had the following stats on the season last year: .292 wOBA given up to lefties, .268 wOBA given up to righties, 16.9 K%, 5.9 BB%, .273 BABIP, 30.0 Hard%, 4.48 SIERA, and a 4.24 xFIP. The Pirates had the following numbers vs. right-handed pitchers last season: 25th in BB%, 27th in K%, 28th in OPS, 29th in ISO, 28th in wOBA, and a 28th in wRC+. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 14.762 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 2.14x value. Fulmer isn’t the sexiest pick in the world but SP2 is quite the dumpster fire this afternoon if you don’t roster two studs. The Pirates struggled vs. righties last season and I think Fulmer can make it long enough to exceed his value tonight.
- Daniel Descalso 2B/3B ARI ($2,800)
- Daniel Descalso and the Arizona Diamondbacks will take on the Philadelphia Phillies and pitcher Ben Lively on the road tonight. The Diamondbacks have an implied total sitting at right around 4.09 runs and they are currently +116 underdogs. Citizens Bank Park was the 9th best hitters park last season. Descalso is likely going to be batting 5th in the order tonight. Descalso had the following stats on the season last year against right-handed pitchers: 11.7 BB%, 21.8 K%, .767 OPS, .172 ISO, .304 BABIP, .332 wOBA, 97 wRC+, and a 39.1 Hard%. He will face Ben Lively who had the following numbers vs. left-handed batters last season: .369 wOBA, 10.0 K%, 9.0 BB%, .280 BABIP, 6.13 xFIP, and a 29.8 Hard%. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a DFS ARMY GRADE of 85.8. Lively really struggled against lefties last season. Descalso should bat in the middle of the order and has an affordable price tonight. Load him up as a value infielder on Draftkings this afternoon.
- Adam Duvall OF CIN ($3,300)
- Adam Duvall and the Cincinnati Reds will take on the Atlanta Braves and pitcher Sean Newcomb at home tonight. The Reds have an implied total sitting at right around 4.22 runs and they are currently +125 underdogs. Great American Ballpark was the 13th best hitters park last season. Duvall is likely going to be batting 4th in the order tonight. Duvall had the following numbers vs. left-handed pitchers last season: 8.8 BB%, 22.0 K%, .924 OPS, .293 ISO, .299 BABIP, .382 wOBA, 134 wRC+, and a 32.7 Hard%. Sean Newcomb had the following numbers vs. right-handed batters last season: .337 wOBA, 23.2 K%, 13.8 BB%, .316 BABIP, 4.81 xFIP, and a 26.3 Hard%. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a DFS ARMY GRADE of 82.5. I love Duvall’s power and think he has a great price and matchup this afternoon. Load him up as a value outfielder with power upside this afternoon on Draftkings.
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Ultimate Free Square
We have a medium sized slate this afternoon with some solid tournaments across the industry. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Daniel Descalso tonight! Good luck Army!
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