Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
Recap
Let’s take a look at how our free squares did last night. Our pitcher free square was Luke Weaver who ended up with right around 5.7 DKFP which was good enough for 0.8x value. Our second free square of the night was Chris Iannetta who ended up with right around 5 DKFP which was good enough for right around 1.4x value. Our outfielder free square was Chris Taylor who ended up with right around 3 DKFP which would be good enough for right around .8x value.
Today
Let’s take a look at the MLB slate for Wednesday night. The teams with the highest implied run total are the: Texas Rangers (4.83), Los Angeles Dodgers (4.79), and the Oakland Athletics (4.67). The highest priced hitters on the slate are Mookie Betts, Paul Goldschmidt, and Rhys Hoskins. The highest priced pitchers on the slate are Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, and Trevor Bauer.
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Free Squares
- Jake Arrieta P PHI ($8,500)
- Jake Arrieta and the Philadelphia Phillies will take on the Arizona Diamondbacks at home tonight. The Phillies have an implied total sitting at right around 3.49 runs and the Phillies are -105 favorites. Citizens Bank Park was the 9th best hitters park last season. Arrieta had the following stats on the season last year: .354 wOBA given up to lefties., .266 wOBA given up to righties, 23.1 K%, 7.8 BB%, .279 BABIP, 29.4 Hard%, 4.15 SIERA, and a 4.11 xFIP. The Diamondbacks had the following ranks against right-handed pitching last season: 5th in BB%, 8th in K%, 3rd in OPS, 3rd in ISO, 3rd in wOBA, and 14th in wRC+. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 18.836 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 2.22x value. Even though the Diamondbacks fared well against righties last season I like the spot for Arrieta tonight. He has pitched well this season and has a low implied vegas total. I think he will exceed his value as an SP2 on Draftkings tonight.
- Salvador Perez C KCR ($3,200)
- Salvador Perez and the Kansas City Royals will take on the Milwaukee Brewers and pitcher Jhoulys Chacin tonight at home. The Royals have an implied total sitting at right around 4.38 runs and they are currently -105 favorites. Kauffman Stadium was the 22nd best hitters park last season. Perez is likely going to be batting 5th in the order tonight. Perez had the following numbers vs. right-handed pitchers last season: 3.1 BB%, 19.0 K%, .794 OPS, .221 ISO, .292 BABIP, .333 wOBA, 105 wRC+, and a 36.7 Hard%. Chacin had the following numbers vs. right-handed batters last season: .266 wOBA, 23.9 K%, 6.8 BB%, .269 BABIP, 3.66 xFIP, and a 23.9 Hard%. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a DFS ARMY GRADE of 69.588. Perez had solid numbers vs. right-handed pitching last season and his price makes him an enticing option on Draftkings tonight.
- Matt Joyce OF OAK ($3,500)
- Matt Joyce and the Oakland Athletics will take on the Texas Rangers and pitcher Doug Fister tonight on the road. The Athletics have an implied total sitting at right around 4.96 and they are currently -101 favorites. Globe Life Park in Arlington was the 2nd best hitters park last season. Joyce is likely going to be batting 1st in the order tonight. Joyce had the following numbers vs. right-handed pitchers last season: 12.7 BB%, 20.4 K%, .855 OPS, .256 ISO, .269 BABIP, .360 wOBA, 127 wRC+, and a 31.3 Hard%. He will face Doug Fister tonight who had the following numbers vs. left-handed batters last season: .365 wOBA, 20.1 K%, 11.6 BB%, .352 BABIP, 4.82 xFIP, and a 39.6 Hard%. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a DFS ARMY GRADE of 84.194. Joyce crushes righties and he gets a good matchup tonight against Fister in a hitters ball-park. Load him up as an affordable outfielder with upside tonight.
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Ultimate Free Square
We have a large slate tonight with some solid tournaments across the industry. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Matt Joyce tonight! Good luck Army!
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