Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
Recap
Let’s take a look at how our free squares did last night. Our pitcher free square was Chris Stratton who ended up with right around 20.80 DKFP which was good enough for 3.1x value. Our second free square of the night was Christian Villanueva who was not in the starting lineup. Our outfielder free square was David Dahl who ended up with right around 8 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 2.9x value.
Today
Let’s take a look at the MLB slate for Tuesday night. The teams with the highest implied run total are the: Colorado Rockies (5.99), Oakland Athletics (5.08), and the San Diego Padres (5.01). The highest priced hitters on the slate are Charlie Blackmon, Mike Trout, and Mookie Betts. The highest priced pitchers on the slate are Charlie Morton, Robbie Ray, and Shohei Otani.
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Free Squares
- Luke Weaver P STL ($7,500)
- Luke Weaver and the St. Louis Cardinals will take on the New York Mets at home tonight. The Mets have an implied total sitting at right around 3.50 runs and the Cardinals are currently -167 favorites. Busch Stadium was the 25th best hitters park last season. Weaver had the following stats on the season last year: .252 wOBA given up to lefties, .337 wOBA given up to righties, 28.6 K%, 6.8 BB%, .335 BABIP, 25.9 Hard%, 3.29 SIERA, and a 2.93 xFIP. The Mets had the following ranks against right-handed pitching last season: 12th in BB%, 22nd in K%, 14th in OPS, 12th in ISO, 15th in wOBA, and 9th in wRC+. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 19.645 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 2.62x value. Weaver had some stellar numbers last season and I like the matchup tonight at home against the Mets. His price makes him a great SP2 option on Draftkings tonight.
- Chris Iannetta C COL ($3,500)
- Chris Iannetta and the Colorado Rockies will take on the San Diego Padres and pitcher Eric Lauer at home tonight. The Rockies have an implied total sitting at right around 5.99 runs and they are currently -148 favorites. Coors Field was the number 1 hitters park last season. Iannetta will likely be batting 2nd in the order tonight. Iannetta had the following numbers vs. left-handed pitching last season: 13.8 BB%, 23.4 K%, 1.092 OPS, .359 ISO, .333 BABIP, .451 wOBA, 175 wRC+, and a 28.8 Hard%. He will face Eric Lauer tonight who we do not have a ton of data on. Here are some of his numbers in AA ball last season: 21.2 K%, 7.5 BB%, .295 BABIP, and a 3.90 xFIP. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a DFS ARMY GRADE of 81.765. Another game in Coors tonight and Iannetta has a solid matchup against a young lefty. He is likely going to be batting 2nd in the order tonight which should mean a lot of fantasy opportunities for Iannetta tonight. Load him up as an affordable catcher with upside on Draftkings tonight.
- Chris Taylor OF LAD ($3,700)
- Chris Taylor and the Los Angeles Dodgers will take on the Miami Marlins and pitcher Dillon Peters tonight at home. The Dodgers have an implied total sitting at right around 4.62 runs and they are currently -250 favorites tonight. Dodgers Stadium was the 17th best hitters park last year. Taylor is likely going to be batting 1st in the order tonight. Taylor had the following numbers vs. left-handed pitchers last season: 7.9 BB%, 27.2 K%, .837 OPS, .188 ISO, .394 BABIP, .355 wOBA, 122 wRC+, and a 29.6 Hard%. He will face Dillon Peters who had the following numbers against right-handed batters last season in limited innings: .307 wOBA, 22.4 K%, 13.1 BB%, .277 BABIP, 4.27 xFIP, and a 25.0 Hard%.
- Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a DFS ARMY GRADE of 69.253. I like the matchup and price for Taylor tonight. He is going to be batting lead-off and he had solid splits vs. lefties last season. Peters isn’t terrible but he is also someone who I do not fear that much. Load up Taylor as a moderately priced outfielder on Draftkings tonight.
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Ultimate Free Square
We have a large slate tonight with some solid tournaments across the industry. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Chris Iannetta tonight! Good luck Army!
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