Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
Today
Let’s take a look at the MLB slate for Monday night. The teams with the highest implied run total are the: Colorado Rockies (6.16), Oakland Athletics (5.09), and the New York Yankees (4.99). The highest priced hitters on the slate are Charlie Blackmon, Aaron Judge, and Mike Trout. The highest priced pitchers on the slate are Gerrit Cole, Carlos Carrasco, and Gio Gonzalez.
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Free Squares
- Chris Stratton P SFG ($6,800)
- Chris Stratton and the San Francisco Giants will take on the Washington Nationals tonight at home. The Nationals have an implied total sitting at right around 3.81 runs and the Giants are currently +103 underdogs. AT&T Park had the following was the 27th best hitters park last season. Stratton had the following numbers on the season last year: .355 wOBA given up to righties, .291 wOBA given up to lefties, 19.9 K%, 10.9 BB%, .316 BABIP, 28.4 Hard%, 4.83 SIERA, and a 4.42 xFIP. The Nationals had the following ranks against right-handed pitching last season: 10th in BB%, 19th in K%, 5th in OPS, 11th in ISO, 7th in wOBA, and 12th in wRC+. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 15.046 DKFP which was good enough for right around 2.21x value. Stratton has really come along in his last two outings. Vegas has a favorable implied run-total against him tonight, and I like the price for him. Load him up as your SP2 on Draftkings tonight.
- Christian Villanueva 3B SDP ($4,000)
- Christian Villanueva and the San Diego Padres will take on the Colorado Rockies and pitcher Chad Bettis on the road tonight. The Padres have an implied total sitting at right around 4.84 runs and they are currently +151 underdogs. Villanueva is likely going to be batting 4th in the order tonight. Coors Field was the number one hitter’s park last season. Villanueva has the following numbers vs.right-handed pitchers this season: 8.9 BB%, 28.9 K%, .859 OPS, .189 ISO, .391 BABIP, .385 wOBA, 150 wRC+, and a 33.3 Hard%. He will face Chad Bettis tonight who had the following numbers vs. right-handed batters last season: .363 wOBA, 11.2 K%, 5.6 BB%, .310 BABIP, 5.32 xFIP, and a 26.1 Hard%. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a DFS ARMY GRADE of 65.944. Villanueva has been crushing the ball and he draws a great matchup tonight at Coors Field. Load him up as a higher priced 3rd baseman tonight on Draftkings.
- David Dahl OF COL ($2,800)
- David Dahl and the Colorado Rockies will take on the San Diego Padres and pitcher Bryan Mitchell tonight at home. The Rockies have an implied total sitting at right around 6.16 runs and they are currently -164 favorites. David Dahl is likely going to be batting 5th in order tonight. Coors Field was the number one hitter’s park last season. Dahl had the following stats vs. right-handed pitching two seasons ago: 6.5 BB%, 24.7 K%, .895 OPS, .218 ISO, .397 BABIP, .380 wOBA, 122 wRC+, and a 36.7 Hard%. Bryan Mitchell has the following stats last season against left-handed batters: .344 wOBA, 14.0 K%, 12.0 BB%, .306 BABIP, 4.49 xFIP, and a 32.4 Hard%. Dahl has a great matchup tonight and a price that is simply too low. Make sure for confirmation that he is in the lineup because if he is he is a must play at his price for me tonight on Draftkings.
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Ultimate Free Square
We have a large slate tonight with some solid tournaments across the industry. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with David Dahl tonight! Good luck Army!
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