Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night
Today
Let’s takes a look at the MLB slate for tonight. The teams with the highest implied run total are the Houston Astros (5.57), Toronto Blue Jays (5.28), and the Oakland Athletics (4.86). The highest priced pitchers on the slate are Charlie Morton, Mike Clevinger, and Tyler Chatwood. The highest priced hitters on the slate are Bryce Harper, George Springer, and Kris Byrant.
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Free Squares
- Bryan Mitchell P SD ($5,400)
- Bryan Mitchell and the San Diego Padres will take on the Colorado Rockies at home tonight. The Rockies have an implied total sitting at right around 4.00 runs and the Padres are currently -106 favorites. PetCo Park was the 29th best hitters park last season. Mitchell had the following stats on the season last year: .344 wOBA given up to lefties, .337 wOBA given up to righties, 11.1 K%, 8.5 BB%, .333 BABIP, 4.76 xFIP, 4.81 SIERA, and a 23.0 Hard%. The Rockies had the following numbers as a team against right-handed pitching last season: 16th in BB%, 10th in K%, 11th in OPS, 21st in ISO, 1st in BABIP, 11th in wOBA, and 29th in wRC+. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 13.822 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 2.56x value. Now Mitchell is not the greatest pitcher on the slate but when you factor in his price and matchup he becomes a very attractive option. We don’t need a ton of production out of him at $5,400 and I foresee him exceeding his value on Draftkings tonight.
- Justin Smoak 1B TOR ($3,400)
- Justin Smoak and the Toronto Blue Jays will take on the Chicago White Sox and pitcher Reynaldo Lopez at home tonight. The Blue Jays have an implied total sitting at right around 5.31 runs and they are currently -164 favorites. The Rogers Centre was the 21st best hitters park last season. Smoak is projected to bat 3rd tonight. Smoak had the following numbers vs. right-handed pitchers last season: 11.1 BB%, 22.3 K%, .856 OPS, .266 ISO, .267 BABIP, .359 wOBA, 124 wRC+, and a 40.4 Hard%. He will face Reynaldo Lopez tonight who had the following numbers on the season against left-handed batters: .338 wOBA, 10.8 K%, 6.9 BB%, .244 BABIP, 6.59 xFIP, and a 31.0 Hard%, Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a DFS ARMY GRADE of right around 81.252. Smoak had a solid season last year and I expect that to continue this year with a solid matchup. I think he is priced too low for the upside tonight. Load him up as a first baseman with upside tonight on Draftkings.
- Josh Reddick OF HOU ($3,300)
- Josh Reddick and the Houston Astros will take on the Baltimore Orioles and pitcher Chris Tillman at home tonight. The Astros have an implied total sitting at right around 5.57 runs and they are currently -200 favorites. Minute Maid Park was the 30th best hitters park last season. Reddick is likely going to be batting 2nd in the order tonight. Reddick had the following numbers against righties last season: 8.2 BB%, 12.1 K%, 867 OPS, .190 ISO, .329 BABIP, .363 wOBA, and a 131 wRC+. Chris Tillman had the following numbers vs. lefties last season: .429 wOBA, 10.8 K%, 19.2 BB%, .348 BABIP, 7.12 xFIP, and a 34.5 Hard%. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a DFS ARMY GRADE of right around 91.967. Reddick is back on the free squares again as he has a great matchup and a great price tonight. Load him up as an affordable outfielder on Draftkings tonight.
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Free Square of the Night
We have a large slate tonight with some solid tournaments across the industry. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Justin Smoak tonight! Good luck Army!
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