Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
Recap
Let’s take a look at how our free squares did last night. Our pitcher free square of the night was Alex Wood who ended up with right around 24.20 DKFP which was good enough for right around 3x value. Our infielder free square was Jason Kipnis who ended up with right around 7 DKFP which was good enough for right around 2.3x value. Our outfielder free square was Matt Joyce who ended up with right around 9 DKFP which was good enough for right around 2.9x value.
Today
Let’s take a look at the MLB slate for Wednesday night. The teams with the highest implied run total are the: Arizona Diamondback (4.69), Atlanta Braves (4.57), and the Philadelphia Phillies (4.43). The highest priced hitters on the slate are Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, and Bryce Harper. The highest priced pitchers on the slate are Geritt Cole, Jose Berrios, and Carlos Carrasco.
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Free Squares
- Carlos Carrasco P CLE ($10,500)
- Carlos Carrasco and the Cleveland Indians will take on the Minnesota Twins on the road in Puerto Rico tonight. The Twins have an implied total sitting at right around 3.61 runs and the Indians are currently -113 favorites. Carrasco had the following stats on the season last year: .308 wOBA given up to lefties, .272 wOBA given up to righties, 28.3 K%, 5.8 BB%, .307 BABIP, 29.3 Hard%, 3.35 SIERA, and a 3.24 xFIP. The Twins had the following stats against right-handed pitching last season: 4th in BB%, 16th in K%, 6th in OPS, 13th in ISO, 5th in wOBA, 6th in wRC+. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 20.65 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 1.97x value. This is a dumpster fire of a slate for value pitching. I think you may need to roll with two higher priced guys and go cheaper on bats tonight. With that said Carrasco is my favorite pitcher on the board tonight. He had great K% numbers and I expect him to rack some up tonight against the Twins. Load him up as your ace on Draftkings tonight.
- Ketel Marte 2B/SS ARI ($3,400)
- Ketel Marte and the Arizona Diamondbacks will take on the San Francisco Giants and pitcher Chris Stratton at home tonight. The Diamondbacks have an implied total sitting at right around 4.69 runs and they are currently -150 favorites. Chase Field was the 3rd best hitters park last season. Marte is likely going to be batting 2nd in the order tonight. Marte had the following numbers vs. right-handed pitching last season: 10.6 BB%, 15.1 K%, .748 OPS, .134 ISO, .302 BABIP, .325 wOBA, 93 wRC+, and a 26.5 Hard%. He will face Chris Stratton who had the following numbers vs. left-handed batters last season: .355 wOBA, 16.5 K%, 13.4 BB%, .337 BABIP, 5.50 xFIP, and a 27.3 Hard%. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a DFS ARMY GRADE of 64.561. Stratton was terrible vs. lefties last season and I am going to try and get as many Arizona lefties in my lineups tonight. Marte is going to be batting 2nd tonight and has an affordable price in what should be one of the highest scoring games tonight. Load him up as an affordable 2B/SS on Draftkings tonight.
- Ender Inciarte OF ATL ($3,300)
- Ender Enciarte and the Atlanta Braves will take on the Philadelphia Phillies and pitcher Vincent Velasquez tonight at home. The Braves have an implied total sitting at right around 4.57 runs and they are currently -106 favorites tonight. SunTrust Park was the 16th best hitters park last season. Inciarte is likely going to be batting 1st in the order tonight. Inciarte had the following stats vs. right-handed pitching last season: 6.4 BB%, 13.6 K%, .773 OPS, .115 ISO, .332 wOBA, 103 wRC+, and a 23.7 Hard%. He will face Vincent Velasquez tonight who had the following numbers vs. left-handed batters last season: .346 wOBA, 22.2 K%, 8.0 BB%, .267 BABIP, 4.52 xFIP, and a 40.5 Hard%. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a DFS ARMY GRADE of 64.941. Ender has a solid matchup tonight and he is likely going to be batting lead-off tonight. He should get plenty of fantasy opportunities tonight in what should be a pretty high scoring game for the Braves tonight. Load him up as an outfielder tonight on Draftkings.
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Ultimate Free Square
We have a large slate tonight with some solid tournaments across the industry. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Ketel Marte tonight! Good luck Army!
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