Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
Recap
Let’s take a look at how our free squares did last night. Our pitcher free square of the night was Blake Snell who ended up with right around 31.25 DKFP which was good enough for right around 4x value. Our infielder free square was Chris Iannetta who ended up with right around 9 DKFP which was good enough for right around 2.8x value. Our outfielder free square was Steve Pearce whose game ended up getting canceled.
Today
Let’s take a look at the MLB slate for Tuesday night. The teams with the highest implied run total are the: Milwaukee Brewers (5.00), Oakland Athletics (4.77), and the Tampa Bay Rays (4.71). The highest priced hitters on the slate are Mookie Betts, Bryce Harper, and Charlie Blackmon. The highest priced pitchers on the slate are Corey Kluber, Shohei Ohtani, and David Price.
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Free Squares
- Alex Wood P LAD ($8,200)
- Alex Wood and the Los Angeles Dodgers will take on the San Diego Padres on the road tonight. The Padres have an implied total sitting at right around 3.21 runs and the Dodgers are currently -179 favorites. Petco Park was the 29th best hitters park last season. Alex Wood had the following stats on the season last year: .265 wOBA given up to lefties, .267 wOBA given up to righties, 24.6 K%, 6.2 BB%, .267 BABIP, 27.7 Hard%, 3.57 SIERA, and a 3.34 xFIP. The Padres had the following ranks against left-handed pitchers last season: 22nd BB%, 3rd in K%, 29th in OPS, 20th in ISO, 29th in wOBA, and 28th in wRC+. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 19.73 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 2.41x value. Vegas loves this matchup for Wood and so do I. He has a great matchup tonight at a price that I think is a bit too low. Load him up as an SP2 on Draftkings tonight.
- Jason Kipnis 2B CLE ($3,100)
- Jason Kipnis and the Cleveland Indians will take on the Minnesota Twins and pitcher Jake Odorizzi on the road tonight in Puerto Rico. The Indians have an implied total sitting at right around 4.29 runs and they are currently -180 favorites. Kipnis is likely going to be batting 2nd in the order tonight. Kipnis had the following numbers against right-handed pitchers last season: 7.1 BB%, 19.7 K%, .744 OPS, .200 ISO, .273 BABIP, .316 wOBA, 93 wRC+, and a 32.6 Hard%. He will face Jake Odorizzi who had the following numbers vs. left-handed batters last season: .293 wOBA, 20.5 K%, 9.5 BB%, .217 BABIP, 5.22 xFIP, and a 30.7 Hard%. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we a DFS ARMY GRADE of 73.1. Kipnis fared pretty well against right-handed pitching last season and Odorizzi had a high xFIP against lefties last season. He has a solid price with solid upside tonight. Load him up as an affordable 2nd baseman on Draftkings tonight.
- Matt Joyce OF OAK ($3,100)
- Matt Joyce and the Oakland Athletics will take on the Chicago White Sox and pitcher Miguel Gonzalez tonight at home. The Athletics have an implied total sitting at right around 4.77 runs and they are currently -160 favorites. The Oakland Coliseum was the 6th best hitters park last season. Joyce is likely going to be batting 1st in the order tonight. Matt Joyce had the following stats against right-handed pitching on the season so far last year: 12.7 BB%, 20.4 K%, .855 OPS, .256 ISO, .269 BABIP, .360 wOBA, 127 wRC+, and a 31.3 Hard%. He will face Miguel Gonzalez tonight who had the following numbers vs. left-handed hitters last season: .360 wOBA, 14.8 K%, 7.5 BB%, .309 BABIP, 5.74 xFIP, and a 34.3 Hard%. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we a DFS ARMY GRADE of 88. This is a perfect matchup for Joyce tonight in what should be a high scoring night for the Angels. He is going to be batting lead-off and I love his price on Draftkings tonight.
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Ultimate Free Square
We have a large slate tonight with some solid tournaments across the industry. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Matt Joyce tonight! Good luck Army!
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