Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
Today
Let’s take a look at the MLB slate for Monday night. The teams with the highest implied run total are the: Toronto Blue Jays (5.23), Oakland Athletics (4.59), and the Tampa Bay Rays (4.51). The highest priced hitters on the slate are Rhys Hoskins, Jose Altuve, and Freddie Freeman The highest priced pitchers on the slate are Jacob DeGrom, Aaron Nola, and Hyun-Jin Ryu.
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Free Squares
- Blake Snell P TBR ($7,800)
- Blake Snell and the Tampa Bay Rays will take on the Texas Rangers at home tonight. The Rangers have an implied total sitting at right around 3.49 runs and the Rays are currently -168 favorites. Tropicana Field was the 24th best hitters park last season. Blake Snell had the following stats on the season last year: .228 wOBA given up to lefties, .320 wOBA given up to righties, 21.8 K%, 10.8 BB%, .277 BABIP, 32.9 Hard%, 4.72 SIERA, and a 4.56. The Rangers had the following ranks vs. left-handed pitching last season: 11th in BB%, 5th in K%, 17th in OPS, 5th in ISO, 17th in wOBA, and 18th in wRC+. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 20.145 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 2.58x value. The Rangers were a middling team against lefties with one of the higher strikeout rates. Vegas likes Snell tonight and I think he makes a great option as an SP2 on Draftkings tonight.
- Chris Iannetta C COL ($3,400)
- Chris Iannetta and the Colorado Rockies will take on the Pittsburgh Pirates and pitcher Steven Brault on the road tonight. The Rockies have an implied total sitting a right around 3.78 runs and they are currently +118 underdogs. PNC Park was the 20th best hitters park last season. Iannetta is likely going to be batting 2nd in the order tonight. Iannetta has the following numbers against left-handed pitchers last season: 13.8 BB%, 22.3 K%, .967 OPS, .263 ISO, .340 BABIP, .409 wOBA, 148 wRC+, and a 28.8 Hard%. He gets to face Steven Brault who had the following numbers vs. right-handed batters last season: .353 wOBA, 14.8 K%, 8.2 BB%, .333 BABIP, 5.54 xFIP, and a 38.7 Hard%. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a DFS ARMY GRADE of 73.12. Iannetta had great numbers vs. left-handed pitching last season and Brault definitely had his struggles. He is likely going to be batting 2nd in the order tonight which should give him plenty of fantasy opportunities in this plus matchup. Load him up as an affordable catcher with upside on Draftkings tonight.
- Steve Pearce OF TOR ($3,100)
- Steve Pearce and the Toronto Blue Jays will take on the Kansas City Royals and pitcher Eric Skoglund at home tonight. The Blue Jays have an implied total sitting at right around 5.23 runs and they are currently -194 favorites. The Rogers Centre was the 21st best hitters park last season. Pearce is likely going to be batting 1st in the order tonight. Pearce has the following numbers vs. left-handed pitching last season: 7.1 BB%, 23.2 K%, .730 OPS, .230 ISO, .217 BABIP, .311 wOBA, 91 wRC+, and a 35.4 Hard%. He gets to face Eric Skoglund who had the following numbers vs. right-handed batters last season in limited innings: .441 wOBA, 14.6 K%, 13.4 BB%, .421 BABIP, 6.39 xFIP, and a 33.9 Hard%. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a DFS ARMY GRADE of 95.312. I love Pearce’s power against left-handed pitching and he has a great price tonight. Load him up as an affordable outfielder with power upside on Draftkings tonight.
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Ultimate Free Square
We have a large slate tonight with some solid tournaments across the industry. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Steve Pearce tonight! Good luck Army!
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