Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
Recap
Let’s take a look back at how our free squares did last night. Our pitcher free square was Sonny Gray who ended up with right around -5.25 DKFP. Our infielder free square was Mike Moustakas who ended up with right around 10 DKFP which was good enough for right around 2.4x value. Our outfielder free square was Eddie Rosario who ended up with 5 DKFP which was good enough for right around 1.7x value.
Today
Let’s take a look at the MLB slate for Friday night. The teams with the highest implied run total are the: Boston Redsox (5.86), Los Angeles Angels (5.19), and the Houston Astros (5.16). The highest priced pitchers on the slate are Gerrit Cole, Zack Greinke, and Kenta Maeda. The highest priced hitters on the slate are Bryce Harper, Mike Trout, and Giancarlo Stanton.
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Free Squares
- Tanner Roark P WSH ($8,700)
- Tanner Roark and the Washington Nationals will take on the Colorado Rockies at home tonight. The Rockies have an implied total sitting at right around 3.95 runs and the Nationals are currently -172 favorites. Nationals Park was the 10th best hitters park last season. Roark had the following stats on the season so far this year: .356 wOBA given up to lefties, .268 wOBA given up to righties, 21.4 K%, 8.3 BB%, .300 BABIP, 27.8 Hard%, 4.31 SIERA, and a 4.15 xFIP. The Rockies had the following numbers vs. right-handed pitching last season: 16th in BB%, 10th in K%, 11th in OPS, 21st in ISO, 11th in wOBA, and 29th in wRC+. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 18.092 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 2.08x value. The Rockies were middle of the pack to below average against righties last season. Roark had solid numbers and I like his price tonight as an SP2 on Draftkings tonight.
- Whit Merrifield 2B KCR ($3,100)
- Whit Merrifield and the Kansas City Royals will take on the Los Angeles Angels and pitcher Andrew Heaney at home tonight. The Royals have an implied total sitting at right around 4.31 runs and they are currently +136 underdogs tonight. Kaufman Field was the 22nd best hitters park last season. Merrifield is likely going to be batting 2nd in the order tonight. Merrifield had the following numbers vs. left-handed pitching last season: 6.1 BB%, 15.3 K%, .800 OPS, .207 ISO, 289 BABIP, .337 wOBA, 109 wRC+, and a 32.4 Hard%. Andrew Heaney had the following numbers in very limited innings vs. righties last season: .476 wOBA, 29.3 K%, 8.5 BB%, .256 BABIP, 4.27 xFIP, and a 56.9 Hard%. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a DFS ARMY GRADE of 70.491. Merrifield has a great price tonight and I love his upside batting 2nd tonight. Load him up as an affordable second baseman tonight on Draftkings.
- Andrew Benintendi OF BOS ($4,000)
- Andrew Benintendi and the Boston Red Sox will take on the Baltimore Orioles and pitcher Chris Tillman at home tonight. The Red Sox have an implied total sitting at right around 5.86 runs tonight and they are currently -163 favorites. Fenway Park was the 11th best hitters park last season. Benintendi will likely be batting 2nd in the order tonight. Benintendi had the following numbers against right-handed pitching last season: 9.9 BB%, 16.9 K%, .813 OPS, .178 ISO, .306 BABIP, .344 wOBA, 111 wRC+, and 36.6 Hard%. Chris Tillman had the following numbers vs. left-handed batters last season: .429 wOBA given up to lefties, 10.8 K%, 19.2 BB%, .348 BABIP, 7.12 xFIP, and a 34.5 Hard%. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a DFS ARMY GRADE of 75.171. Tillman is an awful pitcher and I love Benintendi’s splits vs. right-handed pitching. I expect a big outing for the Red Sox tonight which should mean a lot of fantasy opportunities for Benintendi tonight. Load him up as a moderately priced outfielder with upside on Draftkings tonight.
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Ultimate Free Square
We have a huge slate tonight with some solid tournaments across the industry. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Whit Merrifield tonight! Good luck Army!
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