Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
Recap
Let’s take a look back at how our free squares did last night. Our pitcher free square was Luis Castillo who ended up with right around 12.50 DKFP which was good enough for 1.6x value. Our infielder free square was Jurickson Profar who ended up with right around 13 DKFP which was good enough for right around 5.2x value. Our outfielder free square was Derek Dietrich who ended up with 0 DKFP.
Today
Let’s take a look at the MLB slate for Thursday night. The teams with the highest implied run total are the: Washington Nationals (5.18), Minnesota Twins (5.16), and the Los Angeles Angels (5.06). The highest priced batters on the slate are Bryce Harper, Mike Trout, and Mookie Betts. The highest priced pitchers on the slate are Jose Berrios, Gio Gonzalez, and Rick Porcello.
(Sign up for a DFS ARMY VIP MEMBERSHIP today before it’s too late!)
(Follow me on Twitter!)
Free Squares
- Sonny Gray P NYY ($7,700)
- Sonny Gray and the New York Yankees will take on the Boston Red Sox on the road tonight. The Red Sox have an implied total sitting at right around 4.50 and the Yankees are currently -106 favorites. Fenway Park was the 11th best hitters park last season. Gray had the following stats on the season last year: .281 wOBA given up to lefties, .297 wOBA given up to lefties, 22.6 K%, 8.4 BB%, .269 BABIP, 28.0 Hard%, 4.08 SIERA, and a 3.76 xFIP. The Red Sox had the following ranks against right-handed pitching 19th in BB%, 24th in K%, 24th in OPS, 27th in ISO, 23rd in wOBA, and a 25th in wRC+. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 14.26 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 1.85x value. The Red Sox definitely had their struggles vs. right-handed pitching last season. They have improved their lineup obviously but on a small slate and with an affordable price I love Sonny Gray as an SP2 tonight on Draftkings.
- Mike Moustakas 3B KCR ($4,100)
- Mike Moustakas and the Kansas City Royals will take on the Los Angeles Angels and pitcher Nick Tropeano at home tonight. The Royals have an implied total sitting at right around 4.50 runs and they are currently +118 favorites. Kaufman Field was the 22nd best hitters park last season. Moustakas is likely going to be batting 3rd in the order tonight. The Moose had the following numbers vs. right-handed pitching last season. 6.4 BB%, 15.9 K%, .862 OPS, .268 ISO, .353 wOBA, 119 wRC+, and a 33.1 Hard%. He will be going up against Nick Tropeano who was injured most of the 2017 season so let’s take a look at his 2016 numbers vs. lefties: .376 wOBA, 24.8 K%, 14.0 BB%, 5.27 xFIP, and a 37.2 Hard%. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a DFS ARMY GRADE of 74.003. I think the Royals could be a decent stack option on this small slate and Moustakas is in play everywhere. His price is getting up there but I think it is still at a point where we can get value out of him. Load him up as a higher priced 3rd baseman on Draftkings tonight.
- Eddie Rosario OF MIN ($2,900)
- Eddie Rosario and the Minnesota Twins will take on the Chicago White Sox and pitcher Lucas Giolito at home tonight. The Twins have an implied total sitting at right around 5.16 runs and they are currently -182 favorites tonight. Target Field was the 7th best hitters park last year. Rosario is likely going to be batting 4th in the order tonight. Rosario had the following numbers against righties on the season last year: 7.4 BB%, 17.5 K%, .906 OPS, .268 ISO, .302 BABIP, .377 wOBA, 135 wRC+, and a 34.1 Hard%. He will face Lucas Giolito who had the following numbers vs. left-handed batters last year in limited innings: .283 wOBA, 17.7 K%, 4.7 BB%, .180 BABIP, 4.17 xFIP, and a 30.3 Hard%. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a DFS ARMY GRADE of 74.682. Rosario crushed right-handed pitching last season and I love his price in this matchup tonight. Load him up as a lower priced outfielder with upside tonight on Draftkings.
(Sign up for a DFS ARMY VIP MEMBERSHIP today before it’s too late!)
(Follow me on Twitter!)
Ultimate Free Square
We have a smaller slate tonight with some solid tournaments across the industry. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Eddie Rosario tonight! Good luck Army!
Do you want access to the most advanced Daily Fantasy Basketball tools in the industry? How about the chance to talk player picks and lineups with our MLB DFS Pros and like-minded players? DFS Army VIP Members get all of that PLUS access to our best in the industry projections and optimization tools. Go to DFS Army VIP membership and join the Army today! You won’t find a better deal or a better DFS team to join!
