Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
Recap
Let’s take a look back at how our free squares did last night. Our pitcher free square was Dallas Keuchel who ended up with right around 9 DKFP which was good enough for 1x value. Our infielder free square was Buster Posey who ended up with right around 13 DKFP which was good enough for right around 3.4x value. Our outfielder free square was Hunter Renfroe who ended up with right around 18 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 5x value.
Today
Let’s takes a look at the MLB slate for Wednesday night. The teams with the highest implied run total are the: Texas Rangers (5.83), Los Angeles Angels (5.76), and the Chicago Cubs (4.90). The highest priced pitchers on the slate are David Price, Jon Lester, and Masahiro Tanaka. The highest priced batters on the slate are Mike Trout, Kris Bryant, and Rhys Hoskins.
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Free Squares
- Luis Castillo P CIN ($7,700)
- Luis Castillo and the Cincinnati Reds will take on the Philadelphia Phillies on the road tonight. The Phillies have an implied total sitting at right around 3.89 runs and they are currently +110 favorites. Citizens Bank Park was the 9th best hitters park last season. Castillo had the following stats last season: .267 wOBA given up to lefties, .284 wOBA given up to righties, 27.3 K%, 8.9 BB%, .247 BABIP, 29.6 Hard%, 3.63 SIERA, and a 3.41 xFIP. He gets to face the Phillies tonight who had the following ranks vs. right-handed pitchers last season: 23rd in BB%, 7th in K%, 20th in OPS, 25th in ISO, 20th in wOBA, and 21st is wRC+. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 18.973 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 2.46x value. Castillo has a great matchup tonight against a Phillies team that didn’t fare that great against righties. He has solid K potential tonight at a great price on Draftkings tonight.
- Jurickson Profar 2B/SS TEX ($2,500)
- Jurickson Profar and the Texas Rangers will take on the Los Angeles Angels and pitcher Jaime Barria tonight at home. The Rangers have an implied total sitting at right around 5.83 runs and they are currently -103 favorites. Globe Life Park in Arlington was the 2nd best hitters park last season. Profar is likely going to be batting 2nd in the order tonight. Profar had the following numbers vs. right-handed pitching on the season: 12.5 BB%, 18.8 K%, .479 OPS, .019 ISO, .220 BABIP, .234 wOBA, 35 wRC+, and a 25.6 Hard%. Barria had the following numbers vs. lefties on the season last year in AAA ball: 22.0 K%, 5.1 BB%, .262 BABIP, and a 5.0 xFIP. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a DFS ARMY GRADE of 76.734. Profar’s numbers might not excite you but this is the highest scoring game of the night and Profar has a dirt cheap price batting second in the order tonight. Load him up as a value infielder on Draftkings tonight.
- Derek Dietrich 2B/OF MIA ($2,900)
- Derek Deitrick and the Miami Marlins will take on the New York Mets and pitcher Zack Wheeler at home tonight. The Marlins have an implied total sitting at right around 3.85 runs and they are currently +125 favorites. Marlins Park was the 28th best hitters park last season. Dietrich will likely be batting 2nd in the order tonight. Dietrich had the following numbers vs. right-handed pitchers last season: 8.0 BB%, 21.2 K%, .744 OPS, .190 ISO, .269 BABIP, .315 wOBA, 94 wRC+, and a 34.5 Hard%. Wheeler had the following numbers vs. left-handed batters last season: .364 wOBA, 24.9 K%, 10.7 BB%, 4.40 xFIP, and a 38.3 Hard%. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a DFS ARMY GRADE of 78.93. Dietrich has a solid price and a good matchup tonight. I like his positional flexibility and thinks he makes a great value outfielder or infielder tonight on Draftkings.
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Ultimate Free Square
We have a smaller slate tonight with some solid tournaments across the industry. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Luis Castillo tonight! Good luck Army!
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