Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
Today
Let’s takes a look at the MLB slate for Tuesday night. The teams with the highest implied run total are the: Colorado Rockies (5.78), Los Angeles Angels (5.13), San Diego Padres (4.72). The highest priced pitchers on the slate are Jacob DeGrom, Chris Sale, and Stephen Strasburg. The highest priced hitters on the slate are Bryce Harper, Charlie Blackmon, and Mike Trout.
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Free Squares
- Dallas Keuchel P HOU ($9,100)
- Dallas Keuchel and the Houston Astros will take on the Minnesota Twins on the road tonight. The Twins have an implied total sitting at right around 3.61 runs and they are currently -151 favorites. Target field was the 7th best hitters park last season. Kuechel had the following numbers last season: .192 wOBA given up to lefties, .293 wOBA given up to righties, 21.4 K%, 8.1 BB%, .256 BABIP, 24.7 Hard%, 3.61 SIERA, and a 3.32 xFIP. The Twins had the following numbers vs. lefties last season: 11th in BB%, 19th in K%, 14th in OPS, 24th in ISO, 14th in wOBA, and 13th in wRC+. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 17.838 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 1.96x value. There are a lot of good pitchers on the slate for tonight. I like the matchup for Keuchel tonight and think he will go long enough against an average lefty hitting team in the Twins.
- Buster Posey 1B/C SFG ($3,800)
- Buster Posey and the San Francisco Giants will take on the Arizona Diamondbacks and pitcher Patrick Corbin at home tonight. The Giants have an implied total sitting at right around 3.93 runs and they are currently +103 underdogs. AT&T Park was the 27th best hitters park last season. Posey is likely going to be batting 4th in the order tonight. Posey had the following numbers vs. left-handed pitchers last season: 14.2 BB%, 11.7 K%, 1.019 OPS, .209 ISO, .381 BABIP, .415 wOBA, 161 wRC+, and a 39.2 Hard%. Posey faces Patrick Corbin tonight who had the following numbers vs. right-handed batters last season: .349 wOBA, 19.0 K%, 7.9 BB%, .336 BABIP, 4.25 xFIP, and a 32.7 Hard%. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a DFS ARMY GRADE of 78.114. Posey absolutely mashed lefties last season and Corbin was average to below average last season. He is going to be batting 4th tonight and I love him as a one-off catcher or 1st baseman on Draftkings tonight.
- Hunter Renfroe OF SDP ($3,600)
- Hunter Renfroe and the San Diego Padres will take on the Colorado Rockies and pitcher Tyler Anderson on the road tonight. The Padres have an implied total sitting at right around 4.72 runs and they are currently +140 underdogs. Coors Field was the best hitters park last season. Renfroe is likely going to be batting 4th in the order tonight. Renfroe had the following numbers vs. left-handed pitching last season: 10.0 BB%, 17.7 K%, 1.077 OPS, .368 ISO, .309 BABIP, .439 wOBA, 177 wRC+, and a 35.9 Hard%. Tyler Anderson had the following numbers vs. right-handed batters last season: .358 wOBA, 21.2 K%, 8.2 BB%, .326 BABIP, 4.10 xFIP, and a 33.3 Hard%. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a DFS ARMY GRADE of 95.056. Renfroe crushed lefties last season and he draws a great matchup in a fantastic hitters park. I think he is simply priced too low for the upside tonight on Draftkings.
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Ultimate Free Square
We have a huge slate tonight with some solid tournaments across the industry. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Hunter Renfroe tonight! Good luck Army!
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