Pitching Breakdown
Thursday, April 5th, 2018
In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.
I was brought to the DFS Army to write pitching articles for all members of the DFSArmy! If you are not a member, join the DFSArmy and use promo code “DFSMATT” to get 10% off your subscription!
I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.
Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!
NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that in the write-up!
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Definitions of Stats used in articles via Fangraphs.com
K% (Strikeout Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has struck out a batter, calculated as strikeouts divided by total batters faced.
An average K% is 20%, anything above is considered great or elite
BB% (Walk Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has issued a walk, calculated as walks divided by total batters faced. Average BB% for pitchers is 7.7%, anything lower is considered great or elite
BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play): The rate at which the pitcher allows a hit when the ball is put in play. A BABIP at or near .300 is considered average. EXAMPLE: if a pitcher has a BABIP of .200 it means he could be getting lucky and balls in play are turned into outs if they have a BABIP of .400 he could be getting unlucky on balls in play and they are turning into hits.
xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching): An estimate of a pitcher’s ERA based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, and fly balls allowed, assuming league average results on balls in play and home run to fly ball ratio. The Lower the xFIP the better. 3.80 is around average.
SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA): An ERA estimator that attempts to more accurately capture a pitcher’s performance based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, home runs, and batted ball data. The lower the better 3.90 is considered average, so anything below that is great to excellent. Anything about is poor.
Hard% (Hard Contact Percentage): Percentage of hard-hit batted balls. Anything below 30% is considered average or better. the lower Hard% the better, meaning pitchers are giving up more soft contact.
wRC+: A rate statistic that credits a hitter for the value of each outcome rather than treating them all equally. League average is 100, each point above or below that is one percentage point better or worse than league average. wRC+ is a better representation of offense value.
Yesterday’s Results: (here I will post fantasy points from previous day’s picks)
Because of the 2 slates yesterday, I won’t have the results from every pitcher listed. We will get right into this early 4 game main slate!
Main Slate (4 games) LOCK AT 6:35 EST! (3 games on DK)
Masahiro Tanaka (9.3k FD) (17.6k FD2) vs BAL: HE IS NOT ON THE DK MAIN SLATE. Tanaka is a slate high -230 favorite. So far the O’s have not started that well going 1-5 in their first 6 games and now come into the Stadium to face Tanaka who can rack up some K’s. Baltimore has a 26.6% K rate to RHP so far this season which is 6th worst in the MLB. Tanaka’s issue at home is always the home run ball, so he does not come without risk in this game even though the O’s roster only has a .215 average against him with 8 HR. He has a 22% K rate against them and in his first start this year he went 6 innings with 8 K’s.
Andrew Cashner (5.9k FD) (10.9k FD2) @ NYY: CLEARLY a LARGE field GPP play here tonight. With only 4 games on FD, why not take a risk. Cashner has actually done well against the Yanks the last couple of seasons. We know how much the Yankees strikeout and we know how much power they have. The thing that should help Cashner is his near 50% GB rate in his career. He won’t usually get many K’s but can grab a few here tonight. This could surprise people.
Robbie Ray (9.5k FD) (11.7k DK) (23.2k FD2) @ STL: He will most likely be the chalk of the night on this small slate. He gets a park upgrade from pitching at home and I think that is why people will go there, plus his elite K upside. The Cards have been playing great baseball of late and some great power. I’m interested to see their lineup tonight against a lefty. They have had success against him in the past, but on a small slate, we have to take chances. He actually was better on the road last year and luckily for him, he is on the road tonight. He had a 4% higher K rate and 3% less walk rate on the road last year and a 0.51 better xFIP. He did struggle with walks against RHH which he will see here tonight, but it’s a 4 game slate, and he has amazing upside.
Jon Lester (8.9k FD) (10.6k DK) (20.5k FD2) @ MIL: MIL got shut out last night by C-Mart, and I know Lester is not Martinez but he is still a good pitcher. Struggled in his first start this year and going into MIL, I don’t think many people will go to him here. The RHH scare me a little bit here because they have amazing pop and good BvP, but MIL still can strike out as we saw last night. I do not love this Lester play, but against Suter, I think he has a good chance at getting the win tonight.
My Personal Rankings
- Robbie Ray (all formats)
- Masahiro Tanaka (all formats)
- Jon Lester (all formats)
- Andrew Cashner (large field GPP only)
