Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night
Today
It’s finally here! I am glad to see everyone has returned to the Free Squares MLB edition. Without further ado let’s takes a look at the MLB slate. The teams with the highest implied run total are the Houston Astros (5.01), Kansas City Royals (4.94), and the Baltimore Orioles (4.93). The highest priced pitchers on the slate are Chris Sale, Justin Verlander, and Luis Severino. The highest priced hitters on the slate are Mike Trout, Giancarlo Stanton, and Jose Altuve.
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Free Squares
- Dylan Bundy P BAL ($6,800)
- Dylan Bundy and the Baltimore Orioles will take on the Minnesota Twins at home today. The Twins have an implied total sitting at right around 4.57 runs and the Orioles are currently -120 favorites. Bundy had the following stats on the season last year: 13 wins, 8.06 K/9, 2.71 BB/9, 1.38 HR/9, .273 BABIP, 32.8 GB/%, 4.77 xFIP, 21.8 K%, 7.3 BB%, and a 4.45 SIERA. He had a .317 wOBA given up to lefties and a .304 wOBA given up to righties. I am going to look at how the Twins fared against righties but take these with somewhat a grain of salt as lineups can and have changed drastically. 4th in BB%, 16th in K%, 6th in OPS, 13th in ISO, 12th in BABIP, 5th in wOBA, and 6th in wRC+. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 16.77 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 2.77x value. The Twins are going to be a solid hitting team but as far as value pitchers go I think Bundy is at the top of the list. He is a slight favorite and should get enough K’s to exceed his value.
- Mike Moustakas 3B KCR ($3,800)
- Mike Moustakas and the Kansas City Royals will take on the Chicago White Sox and pitcher James Shields at home. Kaufmann field was the 22nd best hitters park. Moustakas and the Royals have an implied total sitting at right around 4.94 runs and they are currently -162 favorites. Moustakas is likely going to be batting 3rd in the order. Moustakas had the following stats vs. righties last season 6.4 BB%, 15.9 K%, .862 OPS, .268 ISO, .262 BABIP, .353 wOBA, and a 119 wRC+. Shields had the following numbers vs lefties last season: .388 wOBA, 16.7 K%, 12.1 BB%, 5.97 xFIP, and a 32.8% Hard Hit. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that Moustakas has a DFS Army Grade of 85.235. Moose was one of my favorite one off players last year in MLB DFS. I expect that trend to continue this season. He has great numbers vs. righties and Shields has struggled vs lefties. Load him up at 3rd base on Draftkings today.
- Kole Calhoun OF LAL ($3,600)
- Kole Calhoun and the Los Angeles Angels will take on the Oakland Athletics and pitcher Kendall Graveman on the road tonight. The Angels have an implied total sitting at right around 4.67 runs and they are currently -135 favorites. The O.Co Coliseum was the 6th best hitters park last year. Calhoun is likely going to bat 5th in the order today. Calhoun had the following numbers vs. righties last season: 11.1 BB%, 21.3 K%, .741 OPS, .149 ISO, .320 and 102 wRC+. He will be facing off against Kendall Graveman who had the following numbers against lefties last season: .298 wOBA, 17.3 K%, 7.9 BB%, .264 BABIP, 4.89 xFIP, and a 28.7% Hard Hit. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a DFS Army Grade of 76.459. Calhoun had pretty solid numbers vs. righties last season and he faces a pitcher in Graveman who had a high xFIP against lefties last season. He’s going to hit in the middle of the order and should see a lot of fantasy opportunities today.
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Free Square of the Night
We have a large slate to start off the season this year with some large tournaments. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Mike Moustakas tonight! Good luck Army!
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