Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your line-ups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
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Recap
For our pitcher free square, we had Kenta Maeda who ended up with 2.15 DKFP which was right around .2x value. For our infielder free square, we had Chris Iannetta who ended up with 6 DKFP which was good enough for 1.7x value. For our outfielder free square, we had Domingo Santana who ended up with 3 DKFP which was good enough for right around .8x value.
Tonight
We have a monster 14-game slate ahead of us for Tuesday night. On the pitching side of things, we are led by Corey Kluber, Clayton Kershaw, and Justin Verlander. On the hitting side of things, the teams with the highest implied run totals are as follows: Texas Rangers, Minnesota Twins, and the Kansas City Royals. Let’s dive into the slate:
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Free Squares
- Eduardo Rodriguez SP LAD ($6,700)
- Eduardo Rodriguez and the Boston Red Sox will take on the Oakland Athletics tonight at Fenway Park. The Red Sox are currently -170 favorites and the Athletics have an implied total 4.12 runs. Eduardo has had a pretty solid season so far this year and I love his price and matchup tonight. He has the following advanced numbers this season: .389 wOBA given up to lefties, .304 wOBA given up to righties, 25.5 K%, 8.3 BB%, .301 BABIP, 30.3 Hard%, 4.07 SIERA, and a 4.33 xFIP. He will take on the Oakland Athletics who have been averaging 4.59 runs per game this season. They have the following ranks against left handed pitchers: 10th in BB%, 6th in K%, 26th in OPS, 22nd in ISO, 26th in wOBA, and 22nd in wRC+. I love the matchup and think Eduardo is simply priced too low tonight. Lock in him at SP2 tonight and you will have a lot of roster flexibility.
- Matt Carpenter 1B STL ($3,400)
- Matt Carpenter and the St. Louis Cardinals will take on the Cincinnati Reds and pitcher Robert Stephenson tonight at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals have an implied run total sitting at right around 4.76 runs. Carpenter has had a pretty successful season so far and he gets a good matchup tonight at home. He has the following numbers vs. right handed pitchers on the season: 17.2 BB%, 19.3 K%, .854 OPS, .219 ISO, .278 BABIP, .367 wOBA, 128 wRC+, and a 43.2 Hard%. He will take on Robert Stephenson tonight who has the following numbers vs. left handed batters: .364 wOBA, 1.42 HR/9, 21.3 K%, 17.2 BB%, .329 BABIP, and a 5.83 xFIP, and a 44.6 Hard%. Carpenter has a great matchup tonight as he has crushed righties all season long. Load him up as a one off or I don’t mind a Cardinals stack tonight.
- Andrew McCutchen PIT OF ($4,000)
- Andrew McCutchen and the Pittsburgh Pirates will take on the Milwaukee Brewers and pitcher Brent Suter. The Pirates have an implied run total sitting right around 4.15 runs. McCutchen has had a pretty solid season and I like the matchup against Brent Suter tonight. He has the following advanced numbers against left handed pitchers this season: 15.9 BB%, 15.9 K%, 1.093 OPS, .362 ISO, .201 BABIP, .446 wOBA, 179 wRC+, and a 40.4 Hard%. He gets to take on Brent Suter who has the following numbers against right handed batters this season: .321 wOBA, 19.6 K%, 7.0 BB%, .317 BABIP, 4.17 xFIP, and a 28.3 Hard%. This is more of a one off play for me but I love the matchup tonight for McCutchen. He has a ton of upside tonight at a very affordable price.
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Really nice slate we have ahead of us for this Tuesday. The MLB season is winding down so let’s take full advantage of each slate. I hope we narrowed down a few places or players we can target tonight. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my free square pick, I am going to go with Pirates outfielder Andrew McCutchen tonight! Good luck Army!
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