Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your line-ups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
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Recap
For our pitcher free square, we had Lance McCullers who ended up with 10 DKFP which was good enough for 1.3x value! For our infielder free square, we had Nick Hundley who ended up with 19.0 DKFP which was good for 5.8x value!. For our outfielder free square, we had Curtis Granderson who ended up with 2 DKFP which was good enough for .5x value.
Tonight
We have a solid 9-game slate ahead of us for this Thursday night. On the pitching side of things, we are led by Clayton Kershaw, Corey Kluber, and Jon Lester. On the hitting side of things, the teams with the highest implied run totals are as follows: Miami Marlins, Minnesota Twins, and the Kansas City Royals. Let’s dive into the slate:
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Free Squares
- Jameson Taillon SP PIT ($7,100)
- Jameson Taillon and the Pittsburgh Pirates will take on the Philadelphia Phillies tonight at PNC Park. The Pirates are currently +120 underdogs and the Phillies have an implied total sitting at right around 3.96 runs. Taillon has had a pretty up and down year but always has the ability to put up a solid outing. He has the following advanced stats on the season: .364 wOBA against lefties, .320 wOBA against righties, 21.6 K%, 8.5 BB%, .353 BABIP, 30.0 Hard%, 4.23 SIERA, and a 3.87 xFIP. He will be facing the Phillies tonight who have been averaging right around 5.04 runs per game this season. They have the following ranks against right handed pitching on the season: 22nd in BB%, 18th in K%, 24th in OPS, 15th in ISO, 25th in wOBA, and 26th in wRC+. I think Taillon has a solid matchup tonight and I think he will limit the damage done by the Phillies and exceed value. He makes an excellent SP2 option on Draftkings tonight.
- J.T. Realmuto C MIA ($3,400)
- J.T. Realmuto and the Miami Marlins will take on the Atlanta Braves and pitcher Sean Newcomb tonight at SunTrust Park. The MArlins have an implied run total sitting at right around 4.86 runs. Realmuto has established himself as one of the best offensive catchers in the MLB this season and I love his matchup and price this season. Let’s take a look at his numbers vs. left handed pitching so far this season: 11.1 BB%, 13.9 K%, .885 OPS, .215 ISO, .307 BABIP, .370 wOBA, 130 wRC+, and a 34.2 Hard%. He will face Sean Newcomb tonight who has had the following numbers vs. right handed batters on the year: .342 wOBA, 1.45 HR/9, 22.2 K%, 14.4 BB%, .294 BABIP, and a 5.09 xFIP. This is a great matchup for Realmuto tonight and I think a Marlins stack is definitely in play tonight,
- Max Kepler MIN OF ($3,700)
- Max Kepler and the Minnesota Twins will take on the Kansas City Royals and picture Sam Gaviglio tonight at Kaufman Field. The Twins have an implied run total sitting at right around 4.80 runs. We’ve talked up Kepler many times in the free squares due to the tremendous power upside he can provide. He has the following advanced numbers vs. right handed pitching on the season: 8.9 BB%, 16.6 K%, .853 OPS, .227 ISO, .359 wOBA, 121 wRC+, and a 36.7 Hard%. He will face Sam Gaviglio tonight who has the following numbers vs. left handed bats on the year: 1.98 HR/9, 16.7 K%, 8.8 BB%, 4.92 xFIP, and a 33.9 Hard%. I love this matchup for Kepler tonight and would be surprised if he knocks one out of the park tonight. Load him up as a one off in the outfield or include him in your Twins stacks tonight.
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Shortish slate tonight and as I imagine most people will be locked into NFL tonight. In saying that I hope we narrowed down a few places or players we can target tonight. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my free square pick, I am going to go with Twins outfielder Max Kepler tonight! Good luck Army!
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