Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your line-ups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
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Recap
For our pitcher free square, we had Jameson Taillon who ended up with -2.70 DKFP. For our infielder free square, we had J.T. Realmuto who ended up with 3.0 DKFP which was good for .9x value!. For our outfielder free square, we had Max Kepler who ended up with 12 DKFP which was good enough for 3.2x value!
Tonight
We have a huge 15-game slate ahead of us for this Friday night. On the pitching side of things, we are led by Max Scherzer, Yu Darvish, and Ervin Santana. On the hitting side of things, the teams with the highest implied run totals are as follows: Arizona Diamondbacks, New York Yankees, and the Toronto Blue Jays. Let’s dive into the slate:
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Free Squares
- Luke Weaver SP STL ($8,400)
- Luke Weaver and the St. Louis Cardinals will take on the Pittsburgh Pirates tonight at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals are currently -176 favorites and the Pirates have an implied run total sitting at right around 3.45 runs. Weaver has been absolutely dominating in his last 3 starts and I think that will continue tonight against the Pirates. He has the following advanced stats on the season: .210 wOBA given up to lefties, .329 wOBA given up to righties, 31.0 K%, 7.6 BB%, .298 BABIP, 26.1 Hard%, 3.18 SIERA, and a 3.03 xFIP. He will face the Pittsburgh Pirates who have been averaging right around 4.19 runs per game this season. They have the following ranks against right handed pitching on the season: 17th in BB%, 29th in K%, 27th in OPS, 29th in ISO, 27th in wOBA, and 27th in wRC+. Weaver is hot right now and the Pirates are one of the worst hitting teams in baseball against righties. I am going to load up on Weaver at SP2 position tonight.
- Salvador Perez C KCR ($3,400)
- Salvador Perez and the Kansas City Royals will take on the Minnesota Twins and pitcher Ervin Sanatana tonight at Kaufman Field. The Royals have an implied run total sitting at right around 4.51 runs. We’ve Perez on the free squares already this week and I like him again at $3,400 tonight. He has the following numbers against right handed pitching: 20.3 K%, .784 OPS, .224 ISO, .289 BABIP, .328 wOBA, 101 wRC+, and a 37.3 Hard%. He will face Ervin Santana tonight who has the following numbers vs. right handed batters: 1.29 HR/9, 22.7 K%, 9.3 BB%, 4.67 xFIP, and a 28.7 Hard%. This is a better matchup than you would think as I think Ervin Santana is a bit overrated. Perez is cheap in a good matchup and has solid upside potential tonight. I love him as a one off at the catcher position.
- Nelson Cruz SEA OF ($4,000)
- Nelson Cruz and the Seattle Mariners will take on the Los Angeles Angels and pitcher Ricky Nolasco tonight at Angels Stadium. The Mariners have an implied run total sitting at right around 4.99 runs. Cruz has had a pretty good season and he has a ton of power potential tonight against Nolasco. He has the following numbers against right handed pitching this season: 22.1 K%, .909 OPS, .268 ISO, .378 wOBA, 140 wRC+, and a 37.9 Hard%. He gets to face Ricky Nolasco tonight who has the following numbers against right handed batters: 2.58 HR/9, 22.7 K%, 6.6 BB%, 4.11 xFIP, and a 40.4 Hard%. This is a great matchup for Cruz tonight against Nolasco. I love him as a one off and I think the Mariners make a great stack choice tonight.
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Huge slate after a small one yesterday, the MLB season is winding down so let’s take full advantage of each slate. I hope we narrowed down a few places or players we can target tonight. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my free square pick, I am going to go with Mariners outfielder Nelson Cruz tonight! Good luck Army!
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