Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your line-ups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
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Recap
For our pitcher free square last night we had Chad Kuhl who ended up with 19.90 DKFP which was good enough for right around 2.9x value! For our infielder free square, we had Asdrubal Cabrera who ended up with 7 DKFP which was good enough for right around 2.1x value! For our outfielder free square, we had Max Kepler we ended up with 35 DKFP which was good enough for right around 11.7x value! A solid night for the free squares last night.
Tonight
We look to keep it going tonight as we have 10-games on the main slate tonight. On the pitching side of things, we are led by Gio Gonzalez, Zack Greinke, and Justin Verlander. On the hitting side of things, we are led by the Houston Astros, the Washington Nationals, and the Milwaukee Brewers with the highest implied run totals. Let’s dive right into the slate:
Free Squares
- Collin McHugh SP HOU ($8,800)
- Collin McHugh and the Houston Astros will take on the Chicago White Sox at Guaranteed Rate Field tonight. The Astros are -210 favorites and the White Sox have an implied run total sitting at right around 4.03 runs. McHugh has had a decent year and he gets a great matchup tonight against the lowly White Sox. He has the following advanced stats on the season: .290 wOBA against lefties, .304 wOBA given up to righties, 24.6 K%, 7.3 BB%, .233 BABIP, 28.9 Hard%, 4.38 SIERA, and a 4.85 xFIP. He gets to take on the White Sox who have been averaging right around 4.27 runs per game this season. They have the following ranks against right handed pitching on the season: 29th in BB%, 8th in K%, 29th in OPS, 24th in ISO, 29th in wOBA, and 28th in wRC+. You have done well this year if you have been streaming starting pitchers against the White Sox this year. This matchup for McHugh is a solid one he is not crazy expensive and I do not mind him as either an SP1 or SP2 tonight on DraftKings.
- Miguel Cabrera 1B DET ($3,000)
- .Miguel Cabrera and the Detroit Tigers will take on Ivan Nova and the Pittsburgh Pirates tonight at Comerica Park. The Tigers have an implied run total sitting at right around 4.67 runs. Miggy isn’t having his usual dominant year, but he has still be solid and I think $3,000 is simply way too low for him tonight. He has the following numbers vs. right handed pitching on the season: 10.0 BB%, 20.7 K%, .721 OPS, .174 ISO, .261 BABIP, .306 wOBA, 89 wRC+, and a 45.2 Hard%. He gets to take on Ivan Nova tonight who has the following numbers against right handed batters: .280 wOBA, .89 HR/9, 19.7 K%, 3.2 BB%, .273 BABIP, 3.56 xFIP, and a 31.6 Hard%. The matchup might not jump out to you on this one, but the price for Miggy tonight is too cheap. The Tigers have a decent implied run total and Miggy brings a ton of upside to the plate tonight.
- Eric Thames 1B/OF MIL ($3,700)
- Eric Thames and the Milwaukee Brewers will take on the Minnesota Twins and pitcher Bartolo Colon at Miller Park tonight. The Brewers have an implied run total sitting at right around 5.27 runs. We all know how Thames has done this year and he may have cooled down from his hot start, but he is still a guy we love to roster with his power potential. He has the following numbers vs. right handed pitchers this season: 15.7 BB%, 27.2 K%, .920 OPS, .278 ISO, .313 BABIP, .385 wOBA, 134 wRC+, and a 42.3 Hard%. He gets to face Bartolo Colon who has the following numbers vs. lefties on the season so far: .374 wOBA, 1.65 HR/9, 13.0 K%, 6.0 BB%, .327 BABIP, 5.65 xFIP, and a 40.4 Hard%. I really don’t get the pricing for Thames tonight as I would have expected him to be over 4k. In saying that I love Thames as either as a 1st baseman or an outfielder and load him into your Brewers stacks tonight.
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This should be a fun slate tonight as I think ownership is going to be really spread out. I hope we narrowed down a few places or players we can target tonight. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my free square pick, I am going to go with Brewers outfielder Eric Thames tonight! Good luck Army!
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