Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your line-ups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
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Recap
For our pitcher free square last night we had Zack Godley who ended up with 15.30 DKFP which was good enough for right around 2x value. For or infielder free square we had Matt Carpenter who ended up with 20 DKFP points last night which was good enough 5.3x value! For our outfielder free square, we had Adam Duvall who ended up with 18 DKFP which was good enough for 4.5x value!
Tonight
We have a solid 9-game slate ahead of us for the main slate tonight. On the pitching side of things, we are led by Dallas Keuchel, Robbie Ray, and Jose Quintana. On the hitting side of things, we are led by the Minnesota Twins, Cincinnati Reds, and the Miami Marlins. Let’s dive into this slate
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Free Squares
- Homer Bailey SP CIN ($6,800)
- Homer Bailey and the Cincinnati Reds will take on the New York Mets tonight at Great American Ballpark. The Reds are currently -135 favorites and the Mets have an implied run total sitting at 4.69 runs. Bailey has had some decent starts this season and I like his price and matchup up against the Mets tonight. He has the following advanced stats on the season: .375 wOBA given up to lefties, .448 wOBA given up to righties, 15.6 K%, 11.3 BB%, .378 BABIP, 30.5 Hard%, 5.41 SIERA, and a 5.14 xFIP. He gets to take on the New York Mets tonight who have been averaging 4.61 runs per game this season. They have the following ranks against right handed pitching this season: 12th in BB%, 24th in K%, 16th in OPS, 9th in ISO, 16th in wOBA, and 14th in wRC+. I wouldn’t put much stock in those Mets numbers as their lineup has been decimated and are probably one of the worst lineups in baseball at the moment. SP2 is a really tough position tonight on Draftkings and the guy I like the most unless you are spending on two studs is Homer Bailey.
- Marwin Gonzalez OF/SS HOU ($3,800)
- Marwin Gonzalez and the Houston Astros will take on the Texas Rangers and pitcher Andrew Cashner tonight at neutral site field Tropicana Field. The Astros have an implied run total sitting at right around 4.90 runs. Marwin has had a really solid year this year for people not expecting a lot out of him. He has the following advanced numbers against right handed pitcher: 9.7 BB%, 20.7 K%, .961 OPS, .248 ISO, .362 BABIP, .402 wOBA, 157 wRC+, and a 37.1 Hard%. He will take on Andrew Cashner tonight who has the following numbers against left handed batters on the season: .308 wOBA, 1.09 HR/9, 11.9 K%, 12.3 BB%, .233 BABIP, 6.14 xFIP, and a 29.5 Hard%. This is a great matchup for the whole entire Astros team tonight. Marwin has multi-position eligibility and makes a great play at either position tonight.
- Khris Davis OF OAK ($4,400)
- Khris Davis and the Oakland Athletics will take on the Los Angeles Angels and pitcher Parker Bridwell tonight at Angels Stadium. The Athletics have an implied run total sitting at right around 4.25 runs. Khris Davis has had a solid year thus far and we always know the power potential he brings to the plate. He has the following advanced stats against right handed pitching on the season: 9.8 BB%, 31.5 K%, .882 OPS, .308 ISO, .284 OPS, .366 wOBA, 132 wRC+, and a 41.1 Hard%. He will take on Parker Bridwell tonight who has the following numbers vs. right handed batters: .267 wOBA, 1.16 HR/9, 17.6 K%, 3.3 BB%, .250 BABIP, 4.31 xFIP, and a 32.4 Hard%. This is more on a one off play for me tonight with regards to Davis. If you have the money to upgrade in the outfield I think Davis is well worth the price.
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This is an interesting main slate tonight as there are not a ton of aces or a ton of high implied totals. In saying that I hope we narrowed down a few places or players we can target tonight. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my free square pick, I am going to go with Astros infielder Marwin Gonzalez tonight! Good luck Army!
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