Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your line-ups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
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Recap
For our pitcher free square, we had Lance Lynn wh0 ended up with 8.1 DKFP which was right around 1.1x value. For our infielder free square, we had Adam Rosales who ended up with 14 DKFP which was good enough 6.1x value. For our outfielder free square, we had Trey Mancini who had 6 DKFP which was good enough 1.7x value.
Tonight
We have a solid 13-game slate ahead of us for this Wednesday night. On the pitching side of things, we are led by Corey Kluber, Luis Severino, and Marcus Stroman. On the hitting side of things, the teams with the highest implied totals are as follows: the Minnesota Twins, Chicago Cubs, and the New York Yankees. Let’s dive into this Wednesday slate:
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Free Squares
- Luke Weaver SP STL ($6,900)
- Luke Weaver and the St. Louis Cardinals will take on the San Diego Padres tonight at home at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals are currently -180 favorites and the Padres have an implied run total sitting at right around 3.63 runs. Weaver has only thrown in 5 games this season he had 1 spectacular outing and the rest are just a couple innings here and there. He does have the benefit of facing the Padres tonight though. In a small sample size, he has the following numbers on the season: .222 wOBA given up to lefties, .369 wOBA given up to righties, 23.9 K%, 10.5 BB%, .286 BABIP, 4.19 SIERA, 3.89 xFIP, and a 25.0 Hard%. He gets to face the Padres who have been averaging right around 3.80 runs per game this season. They have the following ranks against vs. right handed pitching on the season: 24th in BB%, 2nd in K%, 28th in OPS, 17th in ISO, 29th in wOBA, and 28th in wRC+. We took Lance Lynn against the Padres last night and it did not work out like we wanted. That does not sway me tonight and I love Weaver as an SP2 on Draftkings tonight. It is still a great matchup and he gives you a ton of roster flexibility at his affordable price.
- Alex Avila 1B/C CHC ($3,700)
- Alex Avila and the Chicago Cubs will take on the Cincinnati Reds and pitcher Asher Wojciechowski tonight at Great American Ball Park. The Cubs have an implied run total sitting at right around 5.35 runs. Avila has had a solid season so far and draws a great matchup tonight against Asher Wojciechowski. He has the following numbers against right handed pitchers this season: 16.8 BB%, 30.4 K%, .931 OPS, .238 ISO, .392 BABIP, .395 wOBA, 148 wRC+, and a 54.2 Hard%. He gets to face Asher Wojciechowski who has the following numbers against left handed batters: .379 wOBA, 1.90 HR/9, 22.0 K%, 5.0 BB%, .328 BABIP, 4.85 xFIP, and a 34.7 Hard%. I love this matchup for Avila and the whole Cubs team tonight. He is still priced relatively affordable and has a ton of upside tonight.
- Max Kepler OF MIN ($3,800)
- Max Kepler and the Minnesota Twins will take on the Chicago White Sox and pitcher James Shields tonight at Guaranteed Rate Field. The Twins have one of the highest implied run totals of the night sitting at right around 5.47 runs. Kepler has had a solid season and always brings a ton of power upside to the plate. He has the following numbers vs. right handed pitching on the season: 8.6 BB%, 16.4 K%, .861 OPS, .228 ISO, .303 BABIP, .341 wOBA, 110 wRC+, and a 37.5 Hard%. He gets to face gas can James Shields tonight who has the following numbers vs. left handed batters on the season: 3.55 HR/9, 16.0 K%, 12.4 BB%, .314 BABIP, 6.73 xFIP, and 36.4 Hard%. This is probably one of the best matchups of the day. I love Kepler tonight and almost everyone on the Twins tonight. Don’t overthink this one and load up on Kepler tonight in the outfield.
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We have another solid slate tonight in which there are a ton of ways to go in tournaments tonight. I hope we narrowed down a few places or players we can target tonight. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my free square pick, I am going to go with Twins Outfielder Max Kepler tonight! Good luck Army!
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