Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your line-ups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
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Recap
For our pitcher free square, we had Jimmy Nelson who ended up with 23.30 DKFP which was good enough for 3x value! Our infielder free square was, unfortunately, Jonathan Lucroy who ended up being a very late scratch on the night. Our outfielder free square was Adam Jones who ended up with 8 DKFP which was good enough for 2.4x value.
Tonight
After a crazy slate last night we have a solid 12 game slate ahead of us for this Wednesday night. On the pitching side of things tonight we are led by Dallas Keuchel, Jake Arrieta, and Zack Godley tonight. On the hitting side of things, the teams with the highest implied totals currently are the Colorado Rockies, New York Mets, and the Los Angeles Dodgers. Let’s dive into the main slate:
Free Squares
- J.C. Ramirez SP LAA ($7,200)
- J.C. Ramirez and the Los Angeles Angels will take on the Philadelphia Phillies at home at Angels Stadium tonight. The Angels are currently -200 favorites, and the Phillies have an implied run total sitting at right around 3.78 runs. Ramirez has been having a pretty solid season this year and he has done particularly well in his last few starts. He has the following advanced numbers on the season: .374 wOBA given up to lefties, .290 wOBA given up to righties, 18.7 K%, 7.8 BB%, .295 BABIP, 36.6 Hard%, 4.50 SIERA, and a 4.34 xFIP. He gets to take on the Phillies tonight who have been averaging right around 4.09 runs per game. They have the following numbers vs right handed pitchers on the season: 19th in BB%, 6th in K%, 24th in OPS, 26th in ISO, 23rd in wOBA, and 24th in wRC+. This is a solid matchup tonight for Ramirez at a solid price point. I expect him to have a solid night without having too much damage done to him tonight. He makes a very solid play at the SP2 position on Draftkings tonight.
- Mike Napoli 1B TEX ($3,200)
- Mike Napoli and the Texas Rangers will take on the Seattle Mariners and pitcher Ariel Miranda tonight at Globe Life Park in Arlington. The Rangers have an implied run total sitting at right around 5.31 runs. Mike Napoli has been a solid season so far and he has done well when facing lefties on the season. He has the following numbers vs. lefties on the season: 8.9 BB%, 38.0 K%, .873 OPS, .333 ISO, .286 BABIP, .348 wOBA, 113 wRC+, and a 45.2 Hard%. He will get take on Ariel Miranda tonight who has the following numbers vs. right handed batters on the season: .308 wOBA, 1.84 HR/9, 20.6 K%, 8.3 BB%, .229 BABIP, 5.32 xFIP, and a 29.1 Hard%. This is a great matchup for Napoli as Miranda gives up a ton of home runs. I love Napoli as an affordable first baseman with a ton of upside.
- Adam Jones OF BAL ($3,200)
- Going back to the well with this pick again tonight. Adam Jones and the Baltimore Orioles will take on the Kansas City Royals and pitcher Jason Vargas tonight. The Orioles have an implied run total of right around 5.15 runs. Jones has been having a solid year so far for the year and. He has the following numbers against left handed pitching on the season: 5.8 BB%, 31.7 K%, .703 OPS, .173 ISO, .266 BABIP, .299 wOBA, 82 wRC+, and a 30.6 Hard%. He gets to face Jason Vargas tonight who has the following numbers against righty bats on the season: .294 wOBA, 1.02 HR/9, 18.5 K%, 6.7 BB, ..272 BABIP, 4.82 xFIP, and a 31.4 Hard%. Jones is affordable, has a solid matchup, and is going to bat in the heart of the order tonight. I think he will see a lot of opportunities for fantasy production which is why I am locking him in the outfield.
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After a crazy slate yesterday hopefully there is some more calm tonight. I hope we narrowed down a few places or players we can target tonight. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my free square pick, I am going to go with Angels pitcher JC Ramirez tonight! Good luck Army!
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