Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your line-ups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
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Recap
For our pitcher free square, we had Tyler Skaggs who ended up with 7.80 DKFP which was right around 1.2x value. For our infielder free square, we had Manny Pina who did not end up getting the start last night. For our outfielder free square, we had Trey Mancini who ended up 7 DKFP which was good enough for 1.8x value.
Tonight
After a really short Monday slate, we have a huge 14-game Tuesday slate. On the pitching side of things, we are led by Chris Archer, Carlos Carrasco, and Jimmy Nelson. On the hitting side of things, the teams with the highest implied totals are the Baltimore Orioles, Chicago Cubs, and the Minnesota Twins. Let’s dive into the slate:
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Free Squares
- Lance Lynn SP STL ($7,400)
- Lance Lynn and the St. Louis Cardinals will take on the San Diego Padres at home at home in Busch Stadium tonight. The Cardinals are currently -185 favorites and the Padres have an implied run total sitting at right around 3.64 runs. Lynn has been solid this season and draws a really favorable matchup against the Padres tonight. He has the following advanced numbers on the season: .346 wOBA given up to lefties, .247 wOBA given up to righties, 20.2 K%, 9.6 BB%, .232 BABIP, 30.5 Hard%, 4.72 SIERA, and a 4.68 xFIP. He will face the Padres tonight who have been averaging 3.80 runs per game this season. They have the following ranks against right handed pitchers: 24th in BB%, 2nd in K%, 29th in OPS, 16th in ISO, 29th in wOBA, and 28th in wRC+. The Padres have been a bottom offense all year and they have one of the lowest implied totals of the night. I think Lynn can keep them in check tonight, exceed value, and makes a great option as an SP2.
- Adam Rosales SS ARI ($2,300)
- Adam Rosales and the Arizona Diamondbacks will take on the New York Mets and pitcher Tommy Milone tonight at Citi Field. The Diamondbacks have an implied run total sitting at right around 5.0 runs tonight. Rosales has had an okay season since being traded to the Diamondbacks. He has the following advanced numbers on the season vs. lefties: 6.9 BB%, 28.7 K%, .710 OPS, .115 ISO, .377 BABIP, .308 wOBA, 91 wRC+, and a 28.3 Hard%. He will face Tommy Milone tonight who has the following numbers vs. right-handed bats: .452 wOBA, 3.70 HR/9, 15.8 K%, 6.7 BB%, .374 BABIP, 5.14 xFIP, and a 29.0 Hard%. This is a solid matchup for Rosales tonight and he is extremely cheap. I love him as a one off tonight and also love a Diamondbacks stack tonight.
- Trey Mancini 1B/OF BAL ($3,600)
- Going to go back to the well with Trey Mancini again tonight. Mancini and the Baltimore Orioles will take on the Oakland Athletics and pitcher Paul Blackburn tonight at Camden Yards. The Orioles have the current highest implied run total of the night sitting at right around 6.12 runs. Like I said yesterday Mancini is one of those strange cases where he has some substantial reverse splits. Let’s take a look at his advanced numbers against right handed pitching: 7.1 BB%, 23.1 K%, .917 OPS, .263 ISO, .339 BABIP, .384 wOBA, 139 wRC+, and a 34.0 Hard%. He will face Paul Blackburn who has the following numbers vs. right handed batters this season: .351 wOBA, 1.38 HR/9, 10.6 K%, 4.4 BB%, .319 BABIP, 4.69 xFIP, and a 25.3 Hard%. You obviuosly have to love this matchup tonight for Mancini. He has the highest implied total of the night, will see a ton of opportunities tonight, and it very affordable. Don’t overthink this one and lock in Mancini in your lineups tonight.
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This is a slate I am really liking tonight and think we can have some solid success with. I hope we narrowed down a few places or players we can target tonight. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my free square pick, I am going to double dip with Orioles outfielder Trey Mancini tonight! Good luck Army!
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