Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your line-ups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
Sign up for a DFS ARMY VIP MEMBERSHIP using code “WIN” for a free 7-day trial!)
Recap
For our pitcher free square, we had Marco Estrada who ended up netting 20.75 DKFP which was good enough for 3.2x value! For our infielder free square, we had Russell Martin ended up with 14 DKFP which was good enough for 3.9x value! For our outfielder free square, we had Matt Joyce who had 16 DKFP which was good enough for right around 4.8x value. 3 for 3 on the free squares last night hope you all took advantage of them.
Tonight
After starting off the week with a short slate we have a huge 15 game slate for Tuesday. On the pitching side of things, we are led by Max Scherzer, Chris Sale, and Marcus Stroman. On the hitting side of things we are led by the Colorado Rockies, New York Mets, and the Toronto Blue Jays as the teams with the current highest implied totals. Let’s dive into this monster slate:
Free Squares
- Jimmy Nelson SP MIL ($7,800)
- Jimmy Nelson and the Milwaukee Brewers will take on the St. Louis Cardinals at Miller Park tonight. The Brewers are currently -112 favorites and the Cardinals have an implied run total sitting at right around 4.23 runs. Nelson has been having a solid season and has shown some solid strikeout numbers. He has the following advanced numbers on the season: .302 wOBA given up to lefties, .299 wOBA given up to righties, 27.1 K%, 5.9 BB%, .325 BABIP, 32.1 Hard%, 3.37 SIERA, and a 3.15 xFIP. He will take on the Cardinals who have been averaging right around 4.47 runs per game this season. They have the following numbers against right handed pitching on the season: 14th in BB%, 16th in K%, 14th in OPS, 18th in ISO, 12th in wOBA, and a 13th in wRC+. The Cardinals aren’t a team I fear against right handed batters and I think Nelson should rack up some K’s with relatively low damage tonight. He is super affordable for his upside and I love him as an SP2 on Draftkings tonight.
- Jonathan Lucroy C COL ($2,900)
- Jonathan Lucroy and the Colorado Rockies will take on the New York Mets and pitcher Steven Matz tonight at Coors Field. The Rockies have an implied run total sitting at right around 6.56 runs. Lucroy has just been traded to the Rockies and will get to take the field tonight at Coors Field. Let’s take a look at his numbers so far this season vs. left handed pitchers: 2.9 BB%, 7.2 K%, .634 OPS, .104 ISO, .262 BABIP, .273 wOBA, 62 wRC+, and a 23.8 Hard%. He will take on Steven Matz tonight who has the following numbers vs. right handed batters: .373 wOBA, 2.19 HR/9, 16.0 K%, 4.3 BB%, .325 BABIP, 4.80 xFIP, and a 34.1 Hard%. Lucroy doesn’t have the greatest numbers this year but he is cheap tonight, has a ton of upside, great matchup, and is playing in the game with the highest implied run total. I’m not going to overthink this one and lock him at the catcher position tonight on Draftkings.
- Adam Jones OF BAL ($3,400)
- Adam Jones and the Baltimore Orioles will take on the Kansas City Royals and pitcher Ian Kennedy tonight at Camden Yards. The Orioles have an implied run total sitting at right around 5.19 runs. Adam Jones has had a solid season so far and I like his price and matchup against Kennedy and the Royals tonight. Let’s take at at his advanced numbers vs. right handers on the season: 3.5 BB%, 17.6 K%, .774 OPS, .182 ISO, .301 BABIP, .328 wOBA, 101 wRC+, and a 31.7 Hard%. He gets to face Ian Kennedy tonight who has the following numbers vs. right handed bats: .279 wOBA, 1.45 HR/9, 22.5 K%, 9.0 BB%, .217 BABIP, 4.66 xFIP, and a 34.2 Hard%. I think this is an excellent matchup for Jones tonight as Kennedy is a guy who can get pretty hard. I love Jones as a cheap one off in the outfield and do not mind an Orioles stack as well tonight.
(Sign up for a DFS ARMY VIP MEMBERSHIP today!)
We have an absolute huge slate tonight which I think is going to be great for tournaments with a bunch of ownership diversity out there tonight. I hope we narrowed down a few places or players we can target tonight. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my free square pick, I am going to go with Rockies catcher Jonathan Lucroy tonight! Good luck Army!
Do you want access to the most advanced Daily Fantasy Basketball MLB tools in the industry? How about the chance to talk player picks and lineups with our MLB DFS Pros and like-minded players? DFS Army VIP Members get all of that PLUS access to our best in the industry projections and optimization tools. Go to DFS Army VIP membership and join the Army today! You won’t find a better deal or a better DFS team to join!
