Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your line-ups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
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Recap
For our pitcher free square last night we had Homer Bailey who ended up with 7.90 DKFP which was good enough for right around 1.2x value. For or infielder free square we had Marwin Gonzalez who ended up with 0 DKFP points last night. For our outfielder free square, we had Khris Davis who ended up with 6 DKFP which was good enough for 1.4x value.
Tonight
We have a short 6-game slate ahead of us for Thursday night. On the pitching side of things, we are led by Madison Bumgarner, Gio Gonzalez, and Kyle Hendricks. On the hitting side of things, we are led by the Baltimore Orioles, Miami Marlins, and the New York Yankees. Let’s dive into this slate
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Free Squares
- Michael Wacha SP STL ($7,400)
- Michael Wacha and the St. Louis Cardinals will take on the San Francisco Giants tonight at AT&T Park tonight. The Cardinals are currently -102 favorites and the Giants have an implied run total sitting at right around 3.81 runs. Wacha has struggled a bit as of late but I think he bounces back tonight against the Cardinals. He has the following advanced numbers on the season: .325 wOBA given up to lefties, .328 wOBA given up to righties, 22.5 K%, 7.8 BB%, .335 BABIP, 28.3 Hard%, 4.12 SIERA, and a 3.84 xFIP. He gets to face the San Francisco Giants who have been averaging right around 3.96 runs per game this season. They have the following advanced ranks against right handed pitching: 25th in BB%, 27th in K%, 30th in OPS, 30th in ISO, 30th in wOBA, and 30th in wRC+. You could make a strong case for the Giants being the worst hitting team in the league this year. This is good news for Wacha who is in need of a turnaround. He comes in as my favorite SP2 tonight.
- J.T. Realmuto C MIA ($3,600)
- J.T. Realmuto and the Miami Marlins will take on the Philadelphia Phillies and pitcher Ben Lively tonight at Marlins Park. The Marlins have an implied run total sitting at right around 5.26 runs. Realmuto has been one of the best offensive catchers in the game this season and he has a great matchup tonight at home. He has the following numbers vs. right handed pitching this season: 5.2 BB%, 17.9 K%, .766 OPS, .172 ISO, .310 BABIP, .324 wOBA, 99 wRC+. He will take on Ben Lively tonight who has the following numbers vs. right handed batters this season: .332 wOBA, 13.3 K%, 5.3 BB%, .296 BABIP, 5.50 xFIP, 31.9 Hard%. Lively has struggled this season vs. both righties and lefties and I love this matchup for the Marlins tonight. To me, Realmuto is priced way to low for his upside tonight and I am going to load up on him at catcher.
- Nick Williams OF PHI ($3,100)
- Nick Williams and the Philadelphia Phillies will take on the Miami Marlins and pitcher Odrisamer Despaigne tonight at Marlins Park. The Phillies have an implied run total sitting at right around 4.24 runs. Williams has a decent year and has been particularly hot this last month. He has the following advanced stats against right-handed pitching this season: 8.0 BB%, 27.6 K%, .844 OPS, .219 ISO, .361 BABIP, .355 wOBA, 117 wRC+, and a 40.8 Hard%. He will face Odrisamer Despaigne who has the following numbers vs. left-handed batters this season: .331 wOBA, 8.2 K%, 9.8 BB%, .286 wOBA, 6.61 xFIP, and a 26.0 Hard%. This is a really solid matchup on paper tonight and I love how affordable Williams is tonight. I love him as an affordable one off in the outfield and I actually do not mind a Phillies stack tonight on such a small slate.
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We have a really short slate tonight but I do not mind it as much as other smaller slates. In saying that I hope we narrowed down a few places or players we can target tonight. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my free square pick, I am going to go with Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto tonight! Good luck Army!
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