Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your line-ups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
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Recap
For our pitcher free square, we had JC Ramirez who ended up with 23.20 DKFP which was good enough for right around 3.2x value! For our infielder free square, we had Mike Napoli who didn’t manage anything at the plate last night. For our outfielder free square, we had Adam Jones who ended up with 2 DKFP.
Tonight
We have a larger Thursday main slate than usual with 10 games on the slate. On the pitching side of things, we have Alex Wood, Corey Kluber, and Rick Porcello as the highest priced arms of the night. On the hitting side of things, the teams with the highest implied run totals are the Boston Red Sox, Baltimore Orioles, and the Houston Astros. Let’s dive right into the slate:
Free Squares
- Trevor Cahill SP KCR ($6,200)
- Trevor Cahill and the Kansas City Royals will take on the Seattle Mariners tonight at home in Kaufman Field. The Royals are currently -130 favorites and the Mariners have an implied run total sitting at right around 4.51 runs. Cahill started off really solid this season but has had two not so hot outings. He has the following advanced numbers on the season: .284 wOBA given up to lefties, .364 wOBA given up to righties, 26.2 K%, 9.2 BB%, .337 BABIP, 30.6 Hard%, 3.74 SIERA, and a 3.50 xFIP. He gets to take on the Seattle Mariners who have been averaging right around 4.75 runs per game this season. They have the following ranks against right handed pitching on the season: 22nd in BB%, 17th in K%, 16th in OPS, 20th in ISO, 26th in wOBA, and 23rd in wRC+. This is a good matchup for Cahill tonight and I think he gets back on track tonight.
- Hanley Ramirez 1B BOS ($3,500)
- Hanley Ramirez and the Boston Red Sox will take on the Chicago White Sox and pitcher Miguel Gonzalez at Fenway Park tonight. The Red Sox have an implied run total sitting at right around 5.88 runs. Hanley has been having a pretty solid season and has a great matchup tonight. He has the following numbers against right handed pitchers on the season: 8.3 BB%, 18.7 K%, .758 OPS, .173 ISO, .280 BABIP, .326 wOBA, 97 wRC+, and a 34.8 Hard%. He gets to take on Miguel Gonzalez who has the following numbers against right handed hitters on the season: .334 wOBA, 1.28 HR/9, 12.7 K%, 9.1 BB%, .287 BABIP, 5.70 xFIP, and a 31.0 Hard%. This is a solid matchup for all of the Red Sox tonight and I expect them to score a bunch of runs tonight. Hanley will hit the in the heart of the order and will have a bunch of fantasy opportunities tonight.
- Max Kepler OF MIN ($3,100)
- Max Kepler and the Minnesota Twins will take on the Texas Rangers and pitcher A.J. Griffin at home at Target Field. The Twins have an implied run total sitting at right around 5.23 runs. Kepler has had a solid season and always brings a ton of power potential to the plate. He has the following numbers against right handed pitchers: 9.2 BB%, 17.3 K%, .838 OPS, .201 ISO, .319 BABIP, .355 wOBA, 121 wRC+, and a 36.8 Hard%. A.J. Griffin has the following numbers against lefties on the season: .359 wOBA, 2.51 HR/9, 13.9 K%, 7.7 BB%, .255 BABIP, 6.41 xFIP, and a 37.3 Hard%. Griffin gives up a ton of home runs which is good news for a power hitter like Kepler. I think he has a ton of potential tonight and is priced way to low tonight. Lock him in as a one off or fire up a Twins stack tonight.
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One of the better Thursday slates we have had in a while and I love it for tournaments tonight. I hope we narrowed down a few places or players we can target tonight. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my free square pick, I am going to go with Red Sox infielder Hanley Ramirez tonight! Good luck Army!
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