Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your line-ups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
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Recap
For our pitcher free square, we had Luke Weaver who ended up with 36.75 DKFP which was good enough for 5.3x value! Our infielder free square was Alex Avila who ended up with 7 DKFP which was good enough 1.9x value. For our outfielder free square, we had Max Kepler who also ended up with 7 DKFP which was good enough for 1.8x value.
Tonight
We have a short 6 game slate ahead of us for this Thursday night. On the pitching side of things, we are led by Chris Sale, Dallas Keuchel, and Carlos Martinez as our highest priced pitchers on the slate. On the hitting side of things we are led by the Minnesota Twins, Chicago Cubs, and the Los Angeles Angels as the teams with the highest implied totals. Let’s dive into this short slate:
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Free Squares
- Jose Berrios SP MIN ($8,600)
- Jose Berrios and the Milwaukee Brewers will take on the Chicago White Sox at Guaranteed Rate Field. The Brewers are currently -168 favorites and the White Sox have an implied run total sitting at right around 4.38 runs. Berrios has had a decent year and he always has the stuff to rack up a bunch of strikeouts. He has the following advanced numbers on the season: .307 wOBA given up to lefties, .285 wOBA given up to righties, 21.5 K%, 7.0 BB%, .271 BABIP, 27.6 Hard%, 4.32 SIERA, and a 4.59 xFIP. He will face the Chicago White Sox who have been averaging right around 4.32 runs per game this season. They have the following ranks against right handed pitchers this season: 28th in BB%, 8th in K%, 27th in OPS, 24th in ISO, 28th in wOBA, and 27th in wRC+. This is a pretty insane pitching slate and I am going to be looking to pair one of the top guys with Berrios tonight. He has a superb matchup and I think he will rack up a bunch of strikeouts against this White Sox team.
- Eduardo Escobar 3B/SS MIN ($3,900)
- Eduardo Escobar and the Minnesota Twins will take on the Chicago White Sox and pitcher Derek Holland tonight at Guaranteed Rate Field. The Twins have an implied run total sitting at right around 5.62 runs. Escobar has had a pretty solid season so far this year. He has the following advanced numbers against left handed pitchers: 7.6 BB%, 14.3 K%, .852 OPS, .194 ISO, .306 BABIP, .359 wOBA, 123 wRC+, and a 29.7 Hard%. He gets to face Derek Holland who has the following numbers against righties: .410 wOBA, 2.38 HR/9, 17.1 K%, 8.3 BB%, .250 BABIP, 4.73 xFIP, and a 41.5 Hard%. Escobar crushed lefties and Derek Holland has struggled mightily against righties all year. This is a perfect recipe for success tonight and love Escobar as one off and love a Twins stack tonight.
- Ben Zobrist 2B/OF CHC ($3,900)
- Ben Zobrist and the Chicago Cubs will take on the Cincinnati Reds and pitcher Sal Romano at Great American Ballpark. The Cubs have an implied run total sitting at right around 5.32 runs. Zobrist has had a pretty steady season so far and has a solid matchup tonight in Cincy. He has the following numbers vs. right handed pitchers this season: 11.4 BB%, 13.6 K%, .702 OPS, .134 ISO, .255 BABIP, .309 wOBA, 87 wRC+, and a 34.5 Hard%. He gets to take on Sal Ramano tonight and he has the following numbers against left handed batters on the season: .334 wOBA, .86 HR/9, 11.5 BB%, .307 BABIP, 5.41 xFIP, and a 37.5 Hard%. Cubs have one of the highest implied run totals of the night and Zobrist is going to be hitting in the heart of the order. Plug him in your lineups as either an infielder or outfielder.
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This is probably one of the most impressive pitching slates that I have seen on such a shor slate. I hope we narrowed down a few places or players we can target tonight. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my free square pick, I am going to go with Twins infielder Eduardo Escobar tonight! Good luck Army!
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