Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your line-ups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
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Recap
For our pitcher free square last night we had Collin McHugh who ended up disappointing us last night by barely breaking even. For our infielder free square, we had Miguel Cabrera who ended up with 12 DKFP which was good enough for exactly 4x value! For our outfielder free square, we had Eric Thames who didn’t end up doing anything at the plate last night.
Tonight
We have a pretty solid 10-game slate ahead of us on this Thursday night. On the pitching side of things we are led by Jacob Degrom, James Paxton, and Danny Salazar as the three highest priced pitchers on the slate and a lot more solid pitchers after them. On the hitting side of things the teams with the current highest implied run totals are in order: Houston Astros, Washington Nationals, and the Los Angeles Dodgers. Let’s dive into this Thursday night slate:
Free Squares
- Lance Lynn SP STL ($7,800)
- I think this may be a slate where we pay up for two stud pitcher but if you are looking for someone that is a bit cheaper I do not mind Lance Lynn tonight. Lance Lynn and the St. Louis Cardinals will take on the Kansas City Royals tonight at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals are currently -144 favorites and the Royals have an implied run total sitting at right around 3.90 runs. Lynn has had an okay year so far but he always has the potential to go out and get you a quality start. He has the following advanced metrics on the season: .337 wOBA given up to lefties, .248 wOBA given up to righties, 21.1 K%, 9.1 BB%, .221 BABIP, 29.9 Hard%, 4.56 SIERA, and a 4.59 xFIP. He gets to matchup against the Royals tonight who have been averaging right around 4.35 runs per game this season so far. They have the following ranks against right handed pitching this season: 30th in BB%, 21st in K%, 22nd in OPS, 20th in ISO, 23rd in wOBA, and 23rd in wRC+. Like I said before this may be a night where we pay up for two higher priced pitchers, but If we are looking for a solid and affordable SP2 I really like Lynn tonight.
- Marcus Semien OAK SS ($3,400)
- Marcus Semien and the Oakland Athletics will take on the Baltimore Orioles and pitcher Wade Miley tonight at the O.co Colisuem tonight. The Athletics have an implied run total sitting at right around 4.75 runs. Semien has had just an okay year facing lefties this season but I love his matchup against Miley tonight. He has the following numbers vs. lefties this season: 14.3 BB%, 24.5 K%, .656 OPS, .299 wOBA, 88 wRC+, and a 43.3 Hard%. Miley, on the other hand, has the following numbers vs. right handed bats on the season: .376 wOBA, 1.64 HR/9, 18.7 K%, 12.2 BB%, .348 BABIP, 4.73 xFIP, and a 34.2 Hard%. While Semien’s numbers may not jump out at you I think he has a solid matchup tonight and some decent upside for his price. I love him as a one off and don’t mind a low owned A’s stack.
- Brian Goodwin OF WSH ($3,800)
- Brian Goodwin and the Washington Nationals will take on the Miami Marlins and pitcher Dan Straily. The Nationals have an implied run total sitting at right around 5.20 runs. Goodwin has been having a decent year and he has been particularly hot as of late. He has the following numbers vs. right handed pitchers this season: 8.8 BB%, 23.6 K%, .756 OPS, .242 ISO, .244 BABIP, .314 wOBA, 90 wRC+, and a 33.8 Hard%. He gets to face Dan Straily who has the following numbers vs. left handed bats this season: .296 wOBA, .98 HR/9, 24.1 K%, 7.9 BB%, 4.37 xFIP, The Nationals have one of the highest implied run totals on the board today and Goodwin will bat at the top of that order tonight. He will get a ton of fantasy production opportunities at a relatively affordable price. Load up a Nationals stack tonight or use him as a one off in the outfield.
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This is going to be a great tournament slate because I have no idea what ownership is going to be for pitching tonight. I hope we narrowed down a few places or players we can target tonight. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my free square pick, I am going to go with Nationals outfielder Brian Goodwin tonight! Good luck Army!
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