Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your line-ups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
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Tonight
Hope everyone had a great weekend as we start off the week with a shorter 7-game slate. On the pitching side of things, we are led by Max Scherzer, Jake Arrieta, and Ervin Santana. On the hitting side of things, the teams with the highest implied run totals currently are the Washington Nationals, the Pittsburgh Pirates, and the Cincinnati Reds. Let’s dive into this short slate:
Free Squares
- Carlos Martinez SP STL ($8,200)
- Carlos Martinez and the St. Louis Cardinals will take on the Kansas City Royals at Kaufman Field tonight. The Cardinals are currently -123 favorites and the Royals have an implied total sitting at right around 4.31 runs. After a strong start to the season, Martinez has faltered a little bit and seen a drastic decrease in price since the beginning of the year. Here is a look at his advanced numbers on the season: .351 wOBA given up to lefties, .241 wOBA given up to righties, 26.0 K%, 9.3 BB%, .280 BABIP, 34.0 Hard%, 3.89 SIERA, and a 3.64 xFIP. He will take on the Royals who have been averaging right around 4.31 runs per game this season. They have the following ranks against right handed pitching on the season: 30th in BB%, 21st in K%, 23rd in OPS, 18th in ISO, 24th in wOBA, and 23rd in wRC+. Martinez has had some struggles lately but he has a solid matchup tonight and the pitching options are a bit thin tonight. I think he gets back on track tonight and makes a great SP2 option tonight.
- Matt Carpenter 1B STL ($3,600)
- Matt Carpenter and the St. Louis Cardinals will take on the Kansas City Royals and pitcher Ian Kennedy tonight at Kaufman Field. The Cardinals have an implied run total sitting at right around 4.69 runs. Carpenter has been having a solid year especially when he gets to face righties. He has the following numbers against right handed pitching on the season: 16.7 BB%, 18.4 K%, .863 OPS, .216 ISO, .289 BABIP, .370 wOBA, 128 wRC+, and a 43.6 Hard%. He gets to face Ian Kennedy who has the following numbers against lefties: .321 wOBA, 1.86 HR/9, 19.9 K%, 10.2 BB%, .237 BABIP, 5.48 xFIP, and a 45.4 Hard%. Kennedy is not a guy who has fared too well against left handed bats this year and Carpenter has been a guy who has had a ton of success against righties. I love the matchup tonight for Carpenter as a one off and love all the lefty Cardinals bats tonight.
- Kole Calhoun OF LAA ($3,100)
- Kole Calhoun and the Los Angeles Angels will take on the Baltimore Orioles and pitcher Dylan Bundy tonight at Angels Stadium. The Angels have an implied run total sitting at right around 4.67 runs. Calhoun has had an okay year but I love his matchup against Bundy and the Orioles tonight. He has the following advanced metrics against right handed pitching on the season this year: 9.3 BB%, 21.7 K%, .699 OPS, .128 ISO, .297 BABIP, .302 wOBA, 91 wRC+, and a 32.6 Hard%. He gets to face Dylan Bundy tonight who has the following numbers against left handed bats: .348 wOBA, 1.53 HR/9, 12.8 K%, .272 BABIP, 6.12 xFIP, and a 38.7 Hard%. If you are not sold on Calhoun’s numbers you have to be sold on how bad of a pitcher Bundy is against lefties. I love this matchup for Calhoun tonight as he makes a very affordable one off with a ton of upside in the outfield tonight.
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We have a smaller slate to start off the week but as I have done more research I am finding myself liking the slate. I hope we narrowed down a few places or players we can target tonight. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my free square pick, I am going to go with Cardinals infielder Matt Carpenter tonight! Good luck Army!
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