Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your line-ups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
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Tonight
I hope everyone had a good weekend as we are getting close to the end of the MLB DFS season. We start off the week with a solid 10 game slate. On the pitching side of things, we are led by Max Scherzer, Corey Kluber, and Luis Severino. On the hitting side of things the teams with the highest implied totals are in order: Colorado Rockies, Detroit Tigers, and the Los Angeles Angels. Let’s dive into the slate:
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Free Squares
- Jeff Samardzija SP SFG ($9,000)
- Jeff Samardzija and the San Francisco Giants will take on the San Diego Padres at Petco Park tonight. The Giants are currently -104 favorites and the Padres have an implied run total sitting at right around 3.76 runs. Even though the Giants have had a disappointing year the Samardzija has had a pretty solid year. He has the following ad advanced numbers on the season: .346 wOBA given up to lefties, .290 wOBA given up to righties, 24.4 K%, 3.7 BB%, .324 BABIP, 29.4 Hard%, 3.57 SIERA, and a 3.45 xFIP. He will take on the San Diego Padres who have been averaging right around 3.84 runs per game this season. They have the following ranks against right handed pitchers this season: 24th in BB%, 2nd in K%, 29th in OPS, 18th in ISO, 29th in wOBA, and 28th in wRC+. This is a great matchup for Samardzija tonight and I love him as an SP2 on Draftkings if you can afford him and I do not mind him as an SP1 and load up on some bats.
- Miguel Cabrera 1B DET($3,800)
- Miguel Cabrera and the Detroit Tigers will take on the Colorado Rockies and pitcher Antonio Senzatela at Coors Field tonight. The Tigers have an implied run total sitting at right around 5.42 runs. Miggy hasn’t had the year we expect for him but I love his matchup tonight in Coors Field. He has the following numbers against right handed pitching this season: 9.1 BB%, 20.4 K%, .694 OPS, .155 ISO, .263 BABIP, .297 wOBA, 81 wRC+. He will take on Antonio Senzatela who has the following numbers vs. right handed batters on the season: .319 wOBA, 1.21 HR/9, 20.3 K%, 6.5 BB%, .298 BABIP, and 3.94 xFIP. I know the matchup doesn’t look the greatest on paper but this is Miguel Cabrera in Coors Field tonight with the second highest implied run total of the night. I am going to take my chances and load up on Miggy as a one off and put in him in my Tigers stacks.
- Carlos Gonzalez OF COL ($3,700)
- Carlos Gonzalez and the Colorado Rockies will take on the Detroit Tigers and pitcher Jordan Zimmermann tonight at Coors Field. The Rockies have the highest implied run total of the night sitting at 7.08 runs. Like Miggy CarGo hasn’t had quite the year we would expect but the matchup tonight is too good to pass up. CarGo has the following numbers vs. right handed pitchers on the season: 11.0 BB%, 19.9K%, .708 OPS, .133 ISO, .289 BABIP, .305 wOBA, 67 wRC+, and a 28.3 Hard%. He gets to face Jordan Zimmermann tonight who has the following numbers who has the following numbers vs. lefty pitchers: .382 wOBA, 1.97 HR/9, 15.9 K%, 6.5 BB%, .341 BABIP, 5.30 xFIP, and a 41.6 Hard%. CarGo has had his struggles but when a team has an implied run total sitting at right around 7 runs I am going to load up on everyone in the lineup. He is also priced pretty cheap tonight for his upside tonight as well.
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This is an interesting slate as we have a ton of solid pitchers going tonight and some games with huge implied run totals. I hope we narrowed down a few places or players we can target tonight. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my free square pick, I am going to go with Rockies outfielder Carlos Gonzalez tonight! Good luck Army!
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