Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your line-ups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
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Recap
For our pitcher free square last night we had Jameson Taillon who ended up with 11.25 DKFP which was good enough for right around 1.2x value! For our infielder free square, we had Jason Kipnis who did nothing at the plate last night. For our outfielder free square, we had Jose Pirela who ended up with 10 DKFP which was good enough for 3.3x value.
Tonight
After a short slate yesterday we have a huge 14 game slate ahead of us for Friday. On the pitching side of things, we are led by Max Scherzer, Corey Kluber, and Rich Hill. On the hitting side of things, the teams with the highest implied totals are in order: the Texas Rangers, Colorado Rockies, and the Los Angeles Dodgers. Let’s not waste any time and dive into this huge slate:
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Free Squares
- Zack Godley SP ARI ($8,700)
- Zack Godley and the Arizona Diamondbacks will take on the Minnesota Twins tonight at Target Field. The Diamondback are currently -110 favorites and the Twins have an implied run total sitting at right around 4.71 runs. Godley has quietly been having a solid season so far and I love his matchup against the Twins tonight. He has the following advanced numbers on the season: .261 wOBA given up to lefties, .267 wOBA given up to righties, 25.8 K%, 8.0 BB%, .258 BABIP, 27.6 Hard%, 3.65 SIERA, and a 3.33 xFIP. He will face the Minnesota Twins who have been averaging right around 4.65 runs per game this season. They have the following ranks against right handed pitching on the season: 2nd in BB%, 10th in K%, 18th in OPS, 19th in ISO, 17th in wOBA, and a 15th in wRC+. Outside of the high priced guys my favorite second tier pitcher of the night has to be Zack Godley. He has solid numbers all year and gets to face an offense in which he should be able to fair well against tonight.
- Brad Miller 2B TBR ($2,500)
- Brad Miller and the Tampa Bay Rays will take on the Seattle Mariners and pitcher Erasmo Ramirez tonight at Tropicana Field. The Rays have an implied run total sitting at right around 4.68 runs. Miller has had a decent year so far this year and draws a favorable matchup against Erasmo Ramirez tonight. He has the following numbers against right-handed batters this season: 19.7 BB%, 26.2 K%, .635 OPS, .108 ISO, .246 BABIP, .290 wOBA, 81 wRC+, and a 34.1 Hard%. He gets to face Erasmo Ramirez who has the following numbers vs. left handed batters on the season: .357 wOBA, 2.48 HR/9, 19.6 K%, 8.4 BB%, .277 BABIP, 4.28 xFIP, and a 45.6 Hard%. Miller doesn’t have a ton of power but he has enough to be dangerous tonight against Erasmo Ramirez who gives up a ton of home runs. We are going to need some salary cap relief tonight and I think Miller can provide that with some decent upside.
- Shin-Soo Choo OF TEX ($4,300)
- Shin-Soo Choo and the Texas Rangers will take on the Chicago White Sox and pitcher James Shields tonight at Globe Life Park in Arlington. The Rangers have an implied run total sitting at right around 6.78 runs. Choo has had a solid season all year and he gets a phenomenal matchup tonight against James Shields tonight. He has the following numbers vs. right handed pitching on the season: 14,2 BB%, 20.7 K%, .777 OPS, .160 ISO, .293 BABIP, .339 wOBA, 107 wRC+, and a 41.0 Hard%. He gets to face James Shields tonight who has the following numbers against left handed batters: .444 wOBA, 3.82 HR/9, 15.7 K%, 12.0 BB%, .313 BABIP, 6.87 xFIP, and a 36.6 Hard%. Shields numbers vs. lefties are almost unbelievable and I am not going to overthink this one. Choo makes a great play as a one off even at $4,300 tonight. Load him up as part as a Rangers stack tonight as well as I expect them to unload on Shields tonight.
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This is going to be a fun slate tonight as lineup construction will be interesting will expensive bats and expensive pitching. I hope we narrowed down a few places or players we can target tonight. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my free square pick, I am going to go with Diamondback infielder Zack Godley tonight! Good luck Army!
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