Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your line-ups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
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Recap
For our pitcher free square last night we had Lance Lynn who ended up with 10.10 DKFP and a 1.3x value. For our infielder free sqaure, we had Marcus Semien who ended up with 9 DKFP which was good enough 2.6x value. For our outfielder free square, we had Brian Goodwin who ended up with 26 DKFP which was good enough for 6.8x value!
Tonight
We have a huge 15 game slate to breakdown on this Friday night, On the pitching side of things, we have Rich Hill, Marcus Stroman, and Jimmy Nelson as the highest priced arms of the night. On the hitting side of things, the team with the highest implied run totals are as follows: Washington Nationals, Detroit Tigers, and the Milwaukee Brewers. Let’s dive into this huge slate:
Free Squares
- Jaime Garcia SP STL ($5,700)
- Jaime Garcia and the New York Yankees will take on the Boston Red Sox tonight at Busch Stadium. The Yankees are currently -132 favorites and the Red Sox have an implied run total sitting at right around 4.51 runs. Garcia takes the mound for the Yankees tonight and he has had quite the up and down season so far. Let’s take a look at how Garcia has done on the year: .285 wOBA given up to lefties, .324 wOBA given up to righties, 18.3 K%, 9.1 BB%, .296 BABIP, 28.4 Hard%, 4.53 SIERA, and a 4.20 xFIP. He gets to face the Boston Red Sox tonight who have been averaging right around 4.76 runs per game this season. They have the following ranks against left handed pitching on the season: 5th in BB%, 29th in K%, 8th in OPS, 26th in ISO, 9th in wOBA, and an 8th in wRC+. I know this might not be the most exciting matchup tonight but I think for the dirt cheap price Jaime has the ability to really exceed value tonight. This may be a night where you pay up for two high priced pitchers but fi you are looking to save a ton of salary Garcia makes a solid SP2 option tonight.
- Chris Davis BAL 1B ($2,900)
- Chris Davis and the Baltimore Orioles have will take on the Oakland Athletics and pitcher Paul Blackburn at the O.co Coliseum. They Orioles have an implied run total sitting at right around 4.75 runs. Davis has been a bit cold lately but he is priced below 3k tonight and always has a ton of power potential at the plate. Let’s take a look at his numbers when he’s facing righties on the season: 12.9 BB%, 35.6 K%, .767 OPS, .254 ISO, .250 BABIP, .323 wOBA, 99 wRC+, and a 42.9 Hard%. He gets to take on Paul Blackburn who have the following numbers against left handed bats on the season: .243 wOBA, 7.5 K%, 8.6 BB%, .208 BABIP, 5.20 xFIP, and a 23.1 Hard%. I can see why some people may be swayed away from Davis tonight but he is so affordable and brings such upside that I like him as a one off at first and do not mind rolling out a full Orioles stack tonight.
- Shin-Soo Choo OF TEX ($3,800)
- Shin-Soo Choo and the Texas Rangers will take on the Houston Astros and pitcher Charlie Morton tonight. The Rangers have an implied run total sitting at right around 4.85 runs. Choo has been having a solid season and he draws a favorable matchup against Charlie Morton tonight. He has the following numbers against right handed pitching on the season: 13.4 BB%, 20.9 K%, .784 OPS, .168 ISO, .294 BABIP, .340 wOBA, 109 wRC+, and a 40.5 Hard%. He gets to take on Charlie Morton tonight who has the following numbers vs. left handed pitching on the season: .258 wOBA, .77 HR/9, 29.2 K%, 10.8 BB%, .224 BABIP, 3.72 xFIP, and a 27.0 Hard%. Morton is not a bad pitcher by any means but Choo has been crushing righties all season and I don’t expect that to change tonight. Load him up as a one off in the outfield tonight.
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Huge slate tonight and there are a ton of huge tournaments across the board tonight which should make for a fun night. I hope we narrowed down a few places or players we can target tonight. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my free square pick, I am going to go with Rangers outfielder Shin-Soo Choo tonight! Good luck Army!
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