Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
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Tonight
I hope everyone had a great holiday as we get back to the daily fantasy grind tonight. I will be tackling the main slate for tonight in which we have a good 12-game sized slate. On the pitching side of things, we have Jacob DeGrom and Alex Wood as the high priced studs of the night. On the hitting side of things, we have a Coors Field game but the Detroit Tigers have the highest implied run total of the night. Let’s dive right into this slate tonight:
Free Squares
- Trevor Bauer SP CLE ($7,300)
- Trevor Bauer and the Cleveland Indians will take on the San Diego Padres at home at Progressive Field tonight. The Indians are currently -250 favorites and the Padres have an implied run total sitting at right around 3.54 runs. Bauer has been a bit all over the place this season with some really good outings and some not so hot outings. Let’s take a look at his advanced numbers to get a clearer picture: .335 wOBA given up to lefties, .332 wOBA given up to righties, 25.7 K%, 8.6 BB%, .325 BABIP, 3.90 SIERA, 37.6 Hard%, 3.72 xFIP. His numbers are a lot better than his game logs would suggest. He gets to take on the San Diego Padres tonight who has the following numbers vs. right-handed pitching on the season: 22nd in BB%, 1st in K%, 28th in OPS, 19th in ISO, 28th in wOBA, and 27th in wRC+. The Padres are a top 5 bottom offense and the number one strikeout team in the majors. Kluber is priced way too cheap tonight for the potential upside he brings tonight. Don’t overthink this one and lock in Bauer in your lineups tonight.
- Manny Machado 3B BAL ($3,500)
- Manny Machado and the Baltimore Orioles will take on the Milwaukee Brewers and pitcher Matt Garza at Miller Park tonight. The Orioles have an implied run total sitting at right around 4.64 runs. Machado is not having quite the year we expected but he is still a solid player who brings tremendous upside. He has the following numbers vs. right-handed pitching this season: 8.5 BB%, 21.1 K%, .677 OPS, .194 ISO, .287 wOBA, 73 wRC+, and a 33.7 Hard%. He will be facing Matt Garza who has the following numbers vs. right-handed batters this season: .303 wOBA, 1.30 HR/9, 4.2 BB%, 21.7 K%, 3.37 xFIP, and a 34.0 Hard%. This matchup doesn’t necessarily look the best on paper but I think Machado’s price is simply getting to low. I will roster a guy like Machado who I know will improve at a cheap salary of $3,500 any day.
- J.D. Martinez OF DET ($4,200)
- J.D. Martinez and the Detroit Tigers will take on the San Francisco Giants and pitcher Ty Blach tonight at Comerica Park. The Tigers have an implied run total sitting at right around 6.22 runs. Since returning to the Tigers lineup J.D. has been having a pretty solid season. Let’s take a look at his numbers vs. left-handed pitching this season: 16.7 BB%, 11.1 K%, 1.811 OPS, .667 ISO, .707 wOBA, 360 wRC+, and a 53.9 Hard%. It’s a small sample size but I am still confident in J.D. Martinez ability to smash lefties. He will be facing Ty Blach who has the following numbers vs. right-handed batters on the season: .357 wOBA, 1.16 HR/9, 11.7 K%, 4.6 BB%, 4.82 xFIP, and a 28.5 Hard%. I know J.D. is priced higher than we would usually consider a value play but at $4,200 I think he could still easily crush his value with the matchup tonight. He is my favorite outfielder on the board tonight.
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Free Square of the Night
Nice sized slate to come back to after the holiday. I think this is going to be a fun slate with plenty of well sized tournaments across the industry. I think we narrowed down some spots where we can start our research at tonight. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my free square pick, I am going to go with Orioles infielder Manny Machado tonight! Good luck Army!
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