Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your line-ups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
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Recap
For our free square pitcher, we had Jordan Montgomery who ended up with 27.20 DKFP which was good enough for 4.6x value. For our infielder free square, we had Rougned Odor who ended up netting us right around 21.00 DKFP which was good enough for 5.7x value!. For our outfielder, we had Jose Bautista who ended up with 9.0 DKFP which was good enough for right around 2.5x value.
Tonight
I am going to be tackling the main slate for Wednesday in which we have 10 games on the docket. On the pitching side of things, we are led by Yu Darvish, Carlos Carrasco, and Mike Fiers as the 3 highest priced pitching options of the night. On the hitting side of things, we are led by the Texas Rangers, Chicago Cubs, and the Toronto Blue Jays as the teams with the highest implied run totals.
Free Squares
- Marco Estrada SP TOR ($5,800)
- Marco Estrada and the Toronto Blue Jays will take on the Oakland Athletics at home tonight at the Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays are currently -160 favorites and the Athletics have an implied run total sitting at right around 4.45 runs. Estrada has really struggled in his last few games, but I think he can turn it around it a very favorable matchup against the Athletics tonight. He has the following advanced numbers on the season: .319 wOBA given up to lefties, .377 wOBA given up to righties, 24.4 K%, 9.5 BB%, .330 BABIP, 30.6 Hard%, 4.37 SIERA, and a 4.72 xFIP. He will be taking on the Athletics who have been averaging right around 4.30 runs per game. They have the following ranks against right handed pitching on the season: 8th in BB%, 3rd in K%, 15th in OPS, 3rd in ISO, 16th in wOBA, and 7th in wRC+. I am not in love with a lot of the SP2 options tonight and I love the affordability of Estrada tonight combined with his strikeout upside. There is definitely some risk but I am going to be rollings out Estrada as an SP2 on Draftkings tonight.
- Miguel Cabrera 1B DET ($3,400)
- For the second time this week Miguel Cabrera makes the Free Squares. Cabrera and the Tigers will take on the Kansas City Royals and pitcher Ian Kennedy at home at Comerica Park tonight. The Tigers have an implied run total sitting at right around 5.12 runs. I’ve said it before even though Miggy isn’t having the dominant year we are accustomed to he still has some decent numbers on the year. He has the following numbers against right handed pitching on the season: 10.4 BB%, 20.0 K%, .738 OPS, .178 ISO, .264 BABIP, .313 wOBA, 93 wRC+, and a 46.1 Hard%. He will take on Ian Kennedy tonight who has the following numbers against right handed batters: .279 wOBA, 1.57 HR/9, 22.8 K%, 8.7 BB%, .212 BABIP, 4.61 xFIP, and a 34.8 Hard%. I love the matchup and the price for Cabrera tonight as a one-off, and I think the Tigers as a whole make a solid stack option tonight.
- Nomar Mazara OF TEX ($3,100)
- Nomar Mazara and the Texas Rangers will take on the Miami Marlins and pitcher Jose Urena at Globe Life Park in Arlington tonight. The Rangers have an implied run total sitting at right around 6.16 runs. Mazara has been having a decent year so far and has a ton of power potential. He has the following numbers vs. right handed pitching on the season: 10.3 BB%, 19.4 K%, .783 .189 ISO, .291 BABIP, .331 wOBA, 102 wRC+, and a 33.2 Hard%. He will take on Jose Urena who has the following numbers vs. left handed batters on the season: .322 wOBA, 1.30 HR/9, 11.2 K%, 9.1 BB%, .235 BABIP, 6.82 xFIP (!), and a 33.1 Hard%. This is a phenomenal matchup for Mazara and most of the Rangers tonight. He is really underpriced tonight with a ton of potential upside. Don’t overthink this one and lock in Mazara and a bunch of Rangers tonight.
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Free Square of the Night
Shorter slate tonight but I still think we will see a good distribution of I hope we narrowed down a few places or players we can target tonight. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my free square pick, I am going to go with Blue Jays pitcher Marco Estrada tonight! Good luck Army!
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