Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
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Recap
For our pitcher free square, we had Hyun-Jin Ryu who had 12.45 DKFP which was good enough for 1.6x value. For our infielder free square, we had Miguel Cabrera who had 7 DKFP which was good enough 2.1x value. For our outfielder free square, we had Bradley Zimmer who ended up with 14 DKFP which was good enough for 3.8x value!
Tonight
Hope everyone had a successful Monday as we look to attack this huge 14 game Tuesday night slate. On the pitching side of things, we are led by Jameson Taillon, Sonny Gray, and Gio Gonzalez as the three highest priced arms on the slate. On the hitting side of things, the teams with the highest implied totals are the Texas Rangers, Arizona Diamondbacks, and the Washington Nationals.
Free Squares
- Jordan Montgomery SP NYY ($5,900)
- Jordan Montogomery and the New York Yankees will take on the Cincinnati Reds at home at Yankee Stadium tonight. The Yankees are currently -165 favorites and the Reds have an implied run total sitting at right around 3.98 runs per game. Montgomery has had a solid year but has been a bit cold as of late. I think a matchup against the Reds is just what Montgomery needs to get back on track tonight. He has the following advanced numbers on the year: .269 wOBA given up to lefties, .314 wOBA given up to righties, 21.7 K%, 7.5 BB%, .286 BABIP, 26.5 Hard%, 4.34 SIERA, and a 4.56 xFIP. He will be taking on the Reds who have been averaging right around 4.64 runs per game. They have the following ranks against left handed pitching on the season: 26th in BB%, 16th in K%, 12th in OPS, 7th in ISO, 13th in wOBA, and 17th in wRC+. I know Montgomery has had his struggles lately, but I like the matchup and he is priced extremely cheap tonight. I love locking in Montgomery as a SP2 and having a ton of roster flexibility tonight.
- Rougned Odor 2B TEX ($3,700)
- Rougned Odor and the Texas Rangers will take on the Miami Marlins and pitcher Dan Straily tonight at Globe Life Park in Arlington tonight. The Rangers have an implied run total sitting at right around 5.55 runs. Odor has had a decent year and shown solid power numbers against right handed pitchers this season. Let’s take a look at his splits vs. righties on the year: 4.2 BB%, 24.7 K%, .720 OPS, .235 ISO, .240 BABIP, .300 wOBA, 81 wRC+, and a 37.6 Hard%. He gets to take on Dan Straily who has the following numbers against lefties on the season: .281 wOBA, .80 HR/9, 25.2 K%, 8.0 BB%, 4.18 xFIP, and a 29.1 Hard%. I think there is going to be a ton of runs scored in this game tonight in which it is expected to be scorching hot in Arlington tonight. Odor will bat in the middle of the lineup tonight on a team with one of the highest implied totals of the night. I think he provides a ton of upside as either a one off or an important part of a Rangers stack tonight.
- Jose Bautista OF TOR ($3,600)
- Jose Bautista and the Toronto Blue Jays will take on the Oakland Athletics and pitcher Sonny Gray tonight at home at the Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays have an implied run total sitting at right around 4.75 runs. Bautista has been having a decent year at his age this season particularly against right handed pitching. Here are his numbers vs. right handed pitchers this season: 13.1 BB%, 22.6 K%, .774 OPS, .191 ISO, .269 OPS, .334 wOBA, 107 wRC+, and a 33.8 Hard%. He will take on Sonny Gray tonight who has the following numbers against righties on the season: .296 wOBA, .96 HR/9, 23.2 K%, 7.2 BB%, 3.44 xFIP, and a 31.3 Hard%. Bautista has been mashing righties all year and even though Sonny Gray is a decent pitcher I think Bautista can get to him tonight. I love him as a one off in the outfield tonight on Draftkings.
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Free Square of the Night
It is going to be an interesting slate tonight as the top pitching options are all priced right around the 9-10k range tonight. I hope we narrowed down a few places or players we can target tonight. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my free square pick, I am going to go with Blue Jays outfielder Jose Bautista tonight! Good luck Army!
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