Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
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Recap
For our pitcher free square, we had Zack Wheeler who ended up with 19 DKFP which was good enough for 2.4x value. For our infielder free square, we had Ian Kinsler who ended up with 30.7 DKFP which was good enough for 9.9x value! For our outfielder free square, we had Shin Shoo Choo who ended up with 3 DKFP.
Tonight
We have a huge 15-game slate ahead of us on this Tuesday night. On the pitching side of things, we are led by Clayton Kershaw and two other pitchers who are priced over 10k. On the hitting side of things, the teams with the highest implied run total are Colorado, Houston and New York. Let’s dive into this monster slate:
Free Squares
- Blake Snell SP TB ($6,600)
- Blake Snell and the Tampa Bay Rays will take on the Oakland Athletics at the O.co Coliseum tonight. The Rays are currently -112 favorites and the Athletics have an implied run total sitting at right around 4.50 runs. Snell has been having an okay year but I like his matchup tonight against the Athletics. He has the following advanced stats on the year: .279 wOBA given up to lefties, .353 wOBA given up to righties, 19.2 K%, 14.5 BB%, .295 BABIP, 36.5 Hard%, 5.56 SIERA, and a 5.36 xFIP. He will be taking on the A’s tonight who have been averaging right around 4.34 runs per game. They have the following numbers vs. lefties on the season: 17th in BB%, 3rd in K%, 29th in OPS, 26th in ISO, 28th in wOBA, and 27th in wRC+. Snell has a high SIERA and a high xFIP but he has an absolutely great matchup tonight against one of the worst offenses vs. lefties in the league. I expect him to rack up some K’s and have no problem exceeding value as an SP2 on Draftkings tonight.
- Nick Castellanos 3B DET ($3,600)
- Nick Castellanos and the Detroit Tigers will take on the Kansas City Royals and pitcher Travis Wood tonight at Kaufman Field. The Tigers have an implied run total sitting at right around .331 wOBA. Nick has been having a solid year so far this year and always provides some power upside. He has the following numbers against lefties thus far on the season: 8.5 BB%, 19.5 K%, .890 OPS, .320 ISO, .369 wOBA, 132 wRC+, and a 50.9 Hard%. He gets to take on Travis Wood who has the following numbers against right handed batters on the season: 16.0 K%, 12.3 BB%, .392 BABIP, 5.77 xFIP, and a 29.3 Hard%. Nick Castellanos is one of the better hitters against lefties on the season, and he gets a matchup against a lefty with a 5.77 xFIP. I love Castellanos as a one off and think a Tigers stack is definitely in play tonight.
- Lorenzo Cain OF KCR ($3,600)
- Lorenzo Cain and the Kansas City Royals will take on the Detroit Tigers and pitcher Matt Boyd tonight at home at Kaufman Field. The Royals have an implied run total sitting at right around 5.26 runs. Lorenzo Cain has been having a solid year and gets a great matchup tonight at home. He has the following advanced numbers on the season against left handed pitching: 12.0 BB%, 14.0 K%, .642 OPS, .238 ISO, .197 BABIP, .279 wOBA, and a 68 wRC+. He has good power numbers but his other numbers are a little bit skewed due to an extremely low .197 BABIP. He will be facing Matt Boyd who has the following numbers vs. right handed bats on the season: .387 wOBA, 1.21 HR/9, 15.0 K%, 9.7 BB%, 5.07 xFIP, and a 44.6 Hard%. This is a great matchup for Cain to get back on track vs. lefties this season. As you can tell I love both teams bats in this game. Cain is a great one off tonight as well as part of a Royals stack.
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Free Square of the Night
Lot different than last night as we have some higher priced arms taking the mound tonight. Going to be hard to fit in all the bats we want without finding some value plays. I hope we narrowed down a few places or players we can target tonight. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my free square pick, I am going to go with Royals outfielder Lorenzo Cain tonight! Good luck Army!
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