Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
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Recap
For our pitcher free square last night we had Trevor Bauer who ended up with 12.65 DKFP which was good enough for right around 1.7x value. For our infielder free square, we had Manny Machado who ended up with 5 DKFP which was good enough 1.4x value. For our outfielder free square, we had J.D. Martinez who ended up with 7 DKFP which was good enough for 1.7x value
Tonight
I will be tackling the main slate tonight in which we have 7 games. On the pitching side of things, we have quite the depth with 5 guys priced over 10k with Chris Sale leading the way. On the hitting side of things, we do not have a ton of high scoring games as the Cleveland Indians lead the way with a 5.21 implied run total. Let’s dive into this pitching-heavy slate:
Free Squares
- Josh Tomlin SP CLE ($6,400)
- Josh Tomlin and the Cleveland Indians will take on the San Diego Padres at home in Progressive Field tonight. The Indians are currently -185 favorites and the Padres have an implied run totals sitting at right around 3.79 runs. Tomlin had a decent streak of games he put together but has been a bit cold in his last 3 matchups. A matchup against the Padres tonight may be what he needs to get back on the right track. Let’s take a look at his advanced numbers on the season: .352 wOBA given up to lefties, .395 wOBA given up to righties, 17.0 K%, 2.9 BB%, .356 BABIP, 38.3 Hard%, 4.38 SIERA, 4.33 xFIP. He gets a matchup tonight against the San Diego Padres who have been averaging right around 3.58 runs per game. They have the following numbers vs. right-handed pitching this season: 22nd in BB%, 1st in K%, 28th in OPS, 19th in ISO, 28th in wOBA, and 27th in wRC+. Things did not go as planned last night when we picked Trevor Bauer but I am going back to targeting the Padres again tonight. It won’t take much for Tomlin to reach value tonight and his pricing allows us to fit a lot of the higher studs at SP1 tonight.
- Jason Kipnis 2B CLE ($3,500)
- Jason Kipnis and the Cleveland Indians will take on the San Diego Padres and pitcher Dinelson Lamet at Progressive Field. The Indians have an implied run total sitting at right around 5.21 runs. Kipnis started off the season cold heated up in the middle of the season and now is on a mini cold streak against. Let’s take a look at his numbers vs. right-handed pitching on the season: 6.5 BB%, 19.0 K%, .675 OPS, .161 ISO, .261 BABIP, .289 wOBA, 75 wRC+, and a 30.4 Hard%. He gets a matchup against Dinelson Lamet tonight who has the following numbers vs. lefties on the season: .422 wOBA, 3.06 HR/9, 25.3 K%, 6.3 BB%, 4.63 xFIP, and a 39.6. Lamet may be a good pitcher down the road but he has had some real struggles against lefties on the season. I think this is a prime matchup for Kipnis tonight who is priced very affordably for his upside. I love him as a one off and love Cleveland lefties vs. Lamet tonight.
- Matt Joyce OF OAK ($3,200)
- Matt Joyce and the Oakland Athletics will take on the Seattle Mariners and pitcher Sam Gaviglio at SafeCo Field tonight. The Athletics have an implied run total sitting at right around 4.35 runs. Joyce is having a pretty solid season so far and has been hot lately. Let’s take a look at his numbers vs. right-handed pitching on the season: 15.0 BB%, 21.3 K%, .754 OPS, .212 ISO, .333 wOBA, 108 wRC+, and a 33.5 Hard%. Real solid numbers against righties for Joyce this year. He will get to take on Sam Gaviglio who has the following numbers vs. lefty batters: .287 wOBA, 1.99 HR/9, 17.1 K%, 9.1 BB%, 4.59 xFIP, and a 32.8 Hard%. This is a solid matchup for Joyce tonight and I like the Athletics as a underrated stack tonight.
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Free Square of the Night
This is a really small slate tonight in which it is going to be very pitcher heavy. In saying that hopefully, I pointed out a few spots in which we can target some bats. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my free square pick, I am going to go with Indians infielder Jason Kipnis tonight! Good luck Army!
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