Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your line-ups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
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Recap
For our pitcher free square, we had Marco Estrada who ended up with 11.05 DKFP which was good enough for 1.9x value. For out infielder free square, we had Miguel Cabrera who didn’t do anything at the plate for us last night. Our outfielder free square was Nomar Mazara who ended up with 15 DKFP which was good enough for 4.8x value.
Tonight
We have a really small 5-game slate ahead of us for this Thursday night. On the pitching side of things, we are led by Jon Lester, Chris Archer, and Zack Godley. On the hitting side of things, the teams with the 3 highest implied run totals in order are the Chicago Cubs, Miami Marlins, and the Toronto Blue Jays. Let’s dive into this short slate:
Free Squares
- Luis Perdomo SP SDP ($6,300)
- Luis Perdomo and the San Diego Padres will take on the New York Mets at home in Petco Park tonight. The Padres are currently -125 favorites and the Mets have an implied run total sitting at right around 4.41 runs. Perdomo has had a pretty successful season1 so far and I love his price tonight. Let’s take a look at his advanced numbers on the season: .379 wOBA given up to lefties, .322 wOBA given up to righties, 18.1 K%, 8.7 BB%, .343 BABIP, 32.1 Hard%, 4.09 SIERA, and a 4.01 xFIP. He will take on the New York Mets who have been averaging 4.82 runs per game. They have the following ranks against right handed pitching on the season: 10th in BB%, 28th in K%, 10th in OPS, 7th in ISO, 11th in wOBA, and a 10th in wRC+. There is not a ton of options at SP2 tonight on Draftkings that are cheap, so if you are looking for a cheap option I don’t think you can do much better than Perdomo tonight.
- Matt Carpenter 1B STL ($3,500)
- Matt Carpenter and the St. Louis Cardinals will take on the Arizona Diamondbacks and pitcher Zack Godley tonight at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals have an implied run total sitting at right around 4.64 runs. Carpenter has been crushing right handed pitching so far this season. Let’s take a look at his advanced numbers vs. right handed pitching: 16.2 BB%, 17.8 K%, .877 OPS, .221 ISO, .292 BABIP, .374 wOBA, 130 wRC+. and a 43.1 Hard%. He gets to take on Zack Godley tonight who has the following numbers vs. left handed batters on the season: .285 wOBA, 1.04 HR/9, 24.3 K%, 9.7 BB%, .244 BABIP, 3.10 xFIP, and a 26.6 Hard%. Godley is not a bad pitcher by any means but I love Carpenter’s splits vs. righties and I love him as an affordable one off at first base.
- Kyle Schwarber OF CHC ($3,700)
- Kyle Schwarber and the Chicago Cubs will take on the Chicago White Sox and pitcher Mike Pelfrey tonight at Guaranteed Rate Field. The Cubs have an implied run total sitting at right around 6.07 runs per game. Schwarber has had an up and down year but he draws a great matchup tonight against Pelfrey. He has the following numbers when facing right-handed pitchers on the season: 12.0 BB%, 26.4 K%, .745 OPS, .248 ISO, .205 BABIP, .317 wOBA, 92 wRC+, and a 34.9 Hard%. He gets to face Mike Pelfrey tonight who has the following numbers against left handed pitching: .368 wOBA, 2.02 HR/9, 14.3 K%, 14.9 BB%, 6.53 xFIP, and a 33.0 Hard%. Schwarber is a bit pricey but he has a great matchup and has a ton of upside potential tonight.
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Free Square of the Night
Short slate tonight and one that I have begun to like more as the day goes on. I hope we narrowed down a few places or players we can target tonight. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my free square pick, I am going to go with Cubs outfielder Kyle Schwarber tonight! Good luck Army!
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