Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your line-ups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
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Tonight
We start off the week with a smaller 8-game slate tonight. On the pitching side of things, we are led by Luis Severino, Sonny Gray, and Gio Gonzalez as the three highest priced pitchers on the slate. On the hitting side of things, the teams with the 3 highest implied run totals right now are the Toronto Blue Jays, Texas Rangers, and the Cleveland Indians. Let’s dive right into the slate:
Free Squares
- Marco Estrada SP TOR ($6,500)
- Marco Estrada and the Toronto Blue Jays will take on the Chicago White Sox tonight at Guaranteed Rate Field. The Blue Jays are currently -163 favorites and the White Sox have an implied run total sitting at right around 4.63 runs. Estrada has had 1 struggles in his last few starts but I like the matchup for him tonight against the White Sox. He has the following numbers on the season: .324 wOBA given up to righties, .371 wOBA given up to lefties, 24.2 K%, 9.9 BB%, .323 BABIP, 29.9 Hard%, 4.45 SIERA, and a 4.80 xFIP. He gets to take on the Chicago White Sox tonight who have been averaging right around 4.35 runs per game. They have the following ranks this season against right handed pitching: 29th in BB%, 8th in K%, 29th in OPS, 23rd in ISO, 29th in wOBA, and 28th in wRC+. I know Estrada has struggled but I still think he is a decent pitcher and he has a solid matchup tonight against one of the worst hitting teams in baseball. His price is affordable tonight and I like his K upside tonight as well. In my opinion, he makes a solid option as your SP2 on Draftkings tonight.
- Russell Martin C TOR ($3,600)
- Russell Martin and the Toronto Blue Jays will take on the Chicago White Sox and pitcher James Shields tonight at Guaranteed Rate Field. The Blue Jays have an implied run total sitting at right around 5.86 runs. Martin has had a decent year at the plate and he is one of the better hitting catchers in the league thus far. He has the following numbers vs. right handed pitchers this season: 14.5 BB%, 21.9 K%, .778 OPS, .158 ISO, .295 BABIP, .345 wOBA, and a 114 wRC+. He gets to take on James Shields tonight who has the following numbers against right handed batters on the season: .307 wOBA, .98 HR/9, 19.1 K%, 8.7 BB%, .275 BABIP, 4.83 xFIP, and a 38.6 Hard%. The Blue Jays have one of the highest implied run totals on the board and I don’t foresee Shields shutting them down tonight. Martin is an affordable catcher who will see a lot of fantasy opportunities tonight.
- Matt Joyce OF OAK ($3,300)
- Matt Joyce and the Oakland Athletics will take on the San Francisco Giants and pitcher Matt Cain tonight at the O.co Coliseum. The Athletics have an implied run total sitting at right around 5.07 runs. Joyce has been having a solid season, particularly against right handers. He has the following advanced numbers against right handers this season: 14.3 BB%, 20.0 K%, .764 OPS, .208 ISO, .238 BABIP, .329 wOBA, 109 wRC+, and a 31.6 Hard%. He gets to take on Matt Cain tonight who has the following numbers vs. left handed batters on the season: .359 wOBA, 1.24 HR/9, 13.8 K%, 11.3 BB%, .336 BABIP, 5.16 xFIP, and a 30.2 Hard%. This is a great matchup for Joyce tonight and he is priced in at a very affordable price. I love him as an one off in the outfielder tonight and do not mind rolling out and A’s stack tonight.
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Free Square of the Night
Short slate tonight but there are some very big tournaments posted around the indusrty which should make for a fun MLB DFS night. I hope we narrowed down a few places or players we can target tonight. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my free square pick, I am going to go with Mariners outfielder Nelson Cruz tonight! Good luck Army!
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