Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your line-ups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
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Tonight
Hope everyone had a great weekend as we get back on the grind on this Monday night main slate. We have 12 games on the docket for tonight. On the pitching side of things, we are led by Jacob DeGrom and Zach Greinke along with two other pitchers who are priced over 10k. On the hitting side of things, the teams with the 3 highest implied run totals are the Rangers, Dodgers, and Indians. Let’s dive right into this slate:
Free Squares
- Hyun-Jin Ryu SP LAD ($7,700)
- Hyun-Jin Ryu and the Los Angeles Dodgers will take on the Minnesota Twins tonight at home at Dodgers Stadium. The Dodgers are currently -220 favorites and the Twins have an implied run total sitting at right around 3.86 runs. Ryu has had a pretty solid year so far as he is a pretty consistent pitcher. He has the following advanced stats on the season: .452 wOBA given up to lefties, .318 wOBA given up to righties, 21.9 K%, 7.0 BB%, .317 BABIP, 34.1 Hard%, 4.09 SIERA, and a 4.02 xFIP. He gets to face the Minnesota Twins who have been averaging right around 4.55 runs per game this season. They also have the following ranks against left handed pitching on the season: 10th in BB%, 18th in K%, 23rd in OPS, 28th in ISO, 15th in BABIP, 22nd in wOBA, and 23rd in wRC+. SP2 is not the most attractive position on Draftkings tonight, but out of all the possible guys, I tend to like Ryu the best tonight. He has been priced very affordably tonight and is facing a team who has struggled against lefties. I am going to look to lock in Ryu as my favorite SP2 tonight.
- Miguel Cabrera 1B DET ($3,400)
- Miguel Cabrera and the Detroit Tigers will take on the Kansas City Royals and pitcher Jason Hammel tonight at Comerica Park. The Tigers have an implied run total sitting at right around 5.11 runs. Miguel hasn’t been having the dominant season that we expect from a hitter of his caliber, but he has been playing well and his advanced numbers back that up. Let’s take a look at his advanced numbers on the season against right handed pitching: 10.6 BB%, 20.1 K%, .740 OPS, .183 ISO, .260 BABIP, .314 wOBA, 94 wRC+, and a 46.8 Hard%. He gets to face Jason Hammel tonight who has the following numbers against right handed batters: .351 wOBA, 1.71 HR/9, 14.9 K%, 8.1 BB%, .319 BABIP, 5.36 xFIP, and a 28.4 Hard%. This is a solid matchup for Miggy tonight and he is has a very affordable price. I love him as an affordable one off at first base, and I think the Tigers are going to get to Hammel tonight which would be good news for Miggy tonight.
- Bradley Zimmer OF CLE ($3,700)
- Bradley Zimmer and the Cleveland Indians will take on the Cincinnati Reds and pitcher Tim Adleman tonight at Progressive Field tonight. The Indians have an implied run total sitting at right around 5.48 runs. The young outfielder Zimmer has had a very successful first year in the majors this season and has a great matchup tonight. He has the following advanced numbers against right-handed pitchers: 9.3 BB%, 30.0 K%m .749 OPS, .163 ISO, .356 BABIP, .322 wOBA, 99 wRC+, and a 35.2 Hard%. He will get to take on Tim Adleman tonight who has the following numbers. vs left handed bats: .364 wOBA, 2.79 HR/9, 15.1 K%, 10.1 BB%, .212 BABIP, 6.13 xFIP, and a 30.5 Hard%. This is a great matchup for Zimmer and all of the Cleveland lefties tonight vs. Adleman. He is most likely going to be hitting in the lead off position tonight which should mean plenty of fantasy production opportunities for Zimmer.
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Free Square of the Night
This is a solid slate to start off the week with plenty of top tier pitching options in play. It may be a tougher night to pay up for bats.. I hope we narrowed down a few places or players we can target tonight. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my free square pick, I am going to go with Tigers infielder Miguel Cabrera tonight! Good luck Army!
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