Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
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Tonight
Hope everyone had a good weekend as we start off the week with a solid 12 game slate tonight. On the pitching side of things, Lance McCullers is the only guy who is priced over 10k. On the hitting side of things, we are led by Colorado bats in Coors Field with the highest implied total of the day. Let’s dive into this Monday slate:
Free Squares
- Zack Wheeler SP NYM ($6,900)
- Zack Wheeler and the New York Mets will take on the St. Louis Cardinals tonight at Citi Field. The Mets are currently -108 favorites and the Cardinals have an implied run total sitting at right around. Other than a couple of bad starts Zack Wheeler has been very consistent this season. Let’s take a look at his advanced numbers: .364 wOBA given up to lefties, .331 wOBA given up to righties, 21.0 K%, 9.6 BB%, .327 BABIP, 33.6 Hard%, 4.60 SIERA, and a 4.23 xFIP. He will be facing the St. Louis Cardinals who have been averaging right around 4.53 runs per game this season. They have the following ranks against right handed pitching on the season: 16th in BB%, 16th in K%, 13th in OPS, 15th in ISO, 13th in wOBA, and 13th in wRC+. The Cardinals are a middle of the road offense against right handed pitching. Zack Wheeler is cheap tonight and I like his matchup. He makes a great SP2 option on Draftkings tonight.
- Ian Kinsler 2B DET ($3,200)
- Ian Kinsler and the Detroit Tigers will take on the Kansas City Royals and pitcher Jason Vargas tonight at Kaufman Field. The Tigers have an implied run total sitting at right around 4.67 runs. Kinsler has been having an okay year against lefties this season but I think we are going to see some improvement from him in the second half of the season. He has the following numbers against lefties this season: 10.8 BB%, 12.3 K%, .706 OPS, .207 ISO, .191 ISO, .303 wOBA, 86 wRC+, and a 44.0 Hard%. His numbers aren’t awful and he has been extremely unlucky this year (.191 BABIP) facing lefties this season. He will be taking on Jason Vargas who has the following numbers vs. right handed bats: .274 wOBA, 0.85 HR/9, 19.0 K%, 6.0 BB%, .264 BABIP, 4.60 xFIP, and a 30.5 Hard%. I think Kinsler is underpriced tonight and he makes a great one off play at second base and I do not mind rolling out a Tigers stack aswell.
- Shin-Shoo Choo OF TEX ($4,000)
- Shin-Shoo Choo and the Texas Rangers will take on the Baltimore Orioles and pitcher Chris Tillman at Camden Yards. The Rangers have an implied run total sitting at 5.43 runs. Choo has been hitting the ball well this year and has a great matchup against Tillman tonight. He has the following numbers vs. right handed pitching on the season: 12.8 BB%, 20.4 K%, .783 OPS, .176 ISO, .284 BABIP, .340 wOBA, 108 wRC+, and a 42.2 Hard%. Very solid numbers overall for Choo. He will be taking on Chris Tillman who has the following numbers vs. righties on the season: .440 wOBA, 1.31 HR/9, 10.5 K%, 18.4 BB%, 6.67 xFIP, and a 33.3 Hard%. Yikes! Tillman is a very exploitable pitcher. The Rangers may be my favorite offense outside of Coors Field tonight at Choo is one of my favorite Rangers tonight. Load him up as a one off or part of your Rangers stacks tonight.
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Free Square of the Night
This should be an interesting slate tonight as there are not a ton of high priced arms taking the mound tonight. One of those nights where we can load up on bats. I hope we narrowed down a few places or players we can target tonight. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my free square pick, I am going to go with Rangers outfielder Shin-Shoo Choo tonight! Good luck Army!
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