Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
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Recap
For our pitcher free square, we had Josh Tomlin who managed to net us 25.35 DKFP which was good enough for 4x value! For our infielder free square, we had Jason Kipnis who managed 9 DKFP which was good enough for 2.6x value! Finally, for our outfielder free square, we had Matt Joyce who managed to get us 5 DKFP which was right around 1.5x value.
Tonight
We have a huge 13 game slate ahead of us on this Friday night. On the pitching side of things, we have 5 pitchers priced over 10k tonight with Max Scherzer leading the way. On the hitting side of things, we have a Coors Field game in which the Rockies have the highest implied run total and the Yankees have the highest implied total outside of Coors. Let’s dive into this Friday night slate:
Free Squares
- James Paxton SP SEA ($8,500)
- James Paxton and the Seattle Mariners will take on the Oakland Athletics at Safeco Field tonight. The Mariners are currently -152 favorites and the Athletics have an implied run total sitting at right around 3.58 runs. Paxton has had an excellent season so far with most of the outings reaching or exceeding value. He has the following advanced numbers on the season so far: .198 wOBA given up to lefties, .291 wOBA given up to righties, 26.5 K%, 8.7 BB%, 31.0 Hard%, 3,88 SIERA, and a 3.62 xFIP. He will be facing the Athletics who have been averaging 4.34 runs per game this season. They have the following numbers vs. left-handed pitchers this season: 20th in BB%, 6th in K%, 29th in OPS, 23rd in ISO, 28th in wOBA, and 27th in wRC+. The A’s are one of the 5 worst hitting teams against lefties and have a high K% rate, They are facing a high K% pitcher in James Paxton which makes this a great matchup with a ton of upside. I am going to lock in Paxton at my SP2 on DraftKings and try to not overthink it.
- Trevor Story SS COL ($3,900)
- Trevor Story and the Colorado Rockies will take on the Chicago White Sox and pitcher Derek Holland at Coors Field tonight. The Rockies have one of the highest implied total of the night sitting at right around 6.43 runs. Story has been having a pretty good season so far and he gets a great matchup against the lefty Holland tonight. Let’s take a look at his numbers against lefties: 10.8 BB%, 36.5 K%, .942 OPS, .318 ISO, .392 wOBA, 125 wRC+, and a 43.6 Hard%. Derek Holland, on the other hand, has the following numbers vs. right-handed batters: .380 wOBA, 2.13 HR/9, 18.9 K%, 10.1 BB%, 5.33 xFIP, and a 42.1 Hard%. Even at a price of $3,900, I think Story is priced too cheap tonight due to the matchup. Holland gives up a lot of homers and a lot of hard contact to lefties which is good news for Trevor Story tonight.
- Adam Jones OF BAL ($3,100)
- Adam Jones and the Baltimore Orioles will take on the Minnesota Twins an pitcher Felix Jorge at Target Field tonight. The Orioles have an implied run total at right around 5.23 runs. Jones has been having an okay year but he has hit righties pretty well this season. Let’s take a look at his numbers righties this season: 3.6 BB%, 18.2 K%, .769 OPS, .179 ISO, .327 wOBA, 100 wRC+, and a 30.0 Hard%. He will take on Felix Jorge who only has pitched in one game this season in which he didn’t really do much. When we do not have a lot of information on a pitcher I tend to look at what Vegas thinks and Vegas predicts the Orioles to get to Jorge tonight. I will go with Vegas with this one and I think Jones is a great value as a one-off or part of an Orioles stack.
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Free Square of the Night
Fridays are always some of the best slates of the year and this one looks like it will be a fun slate for tournaments We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my free square pick, I am going to go with Rockies infielder Trevor Story tonight! Good luck Army!
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