Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your line-ups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
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Recap
For our free square pitcher, we had Luis Perdomo who ended up netting 10.40 DKFP which was good enough for 1.7x value. For our infielder free square, we had Matt Carpenter who ended up with 3 DKFP which was .9x value. Last but not least was our outfielder Kyle Schwarber who ended up with 40 DKFP which was good for 10.8x value!
Tonight
We have a monstrous 15-game slate tonight with some huge tournaments across the industry tonight. On the pitching side of things, we are led by Alex Wood, Dallas Kuechel, and Rick Porcello as the three highest pitchers of the slate. On the hitting side of things, the teams with the current highest implied run totals are the Texas Rangers, Cleveland Indians, and the Houston Astros.
Free Squares
- Masahiro Tanaka SP NYY ($7,500)
- Masahiro Tanaka and the New York Yankees will take on the Tampa Bay Rays at home at Yankee Stadium tonight. The Yankees are currently -195 favorites and the Rays have an implied run total sitting at right around 3.90 runs. Tanaka has been having a pretty up and down year so far this season. Let’s take a look at his advanced numbers on the season: .340 wOBA given up to lefties, .356 wOBA given up to lefties, 23.6 K%, 5.4 BB%, .317 BABIP, 31.6 Hard%, 3.72 SIERA, and a 3.74 xFIP. He will get to face the Tampa Bay Rays who have been averaging right around 4.60 runs. They have the following ranks against right handed pitchers this season: 12th in BB%, 4th in K%, 7th in OPS, 5th in ISO, 7th in wOBA, and 4th in wRC+. The Rays are a solid hitting team but they do strikeout out a ton. It is always a risk reward situation when playing pitchers against them. That being said I really like Tanaka tonight and think he can be a solid SP2 option on Draftkings tonight.
- Chris Davis 1B BAL ($3,800)
- Chris Davis and the Baltimore Orioles will take on the Texas Rangers and pitcher Andrew Cashner at Globe Life Park in Arlington. The Orioles have an implied run total of 5.38 runs. Davis has had an okay year so far but he always has a ton of power potential at the plate. He has the following numbers vs. right handed pitching on the season: 12.2 BB%, 37.8 K%, .781 OPS, .275 ISO, .250 BABIP, .327 wOBA, 102 wRC+, and a 44.9 Hard%. He will get to take on Andrew Cashner who has the following numbers vs. left handed pitchers: .312 wOBA, 1.02 HR/9, 12.4 K%, 12.4 BB%, .254 BABIP, 5.91 xFIP, and a 32.4 Hard%. This is a great matchup for Davis tonight and the whole entire Orioles team. He is a little pricey but I love his upside tonight in a game in which I expect the Orioles to score a bunch of runs.
- Nelson Cruz OF SEA ($3,500)
- Nelson Cruz and the Seattle Mariners will take on the New York Mets and pitcher Rafael Montero tonight at SafeCo field. The Mariners have an implied run total sitting at right around 5.21 runs. Cruz kind of like Davis is having a decent year but we take these guys for their power potential. He has the following numbers vs. right handed pitchers on the season: 7.2 BB%, 21.8 K%, .859 OPS, .240 OPS, .314 BABIP, .359 wOBA, 130 wRC+, and a 37.7 Hard%. He gets to take on Rafael Montero tonight who has the following numbers vs. right handed batters: .373 wOBA, 1.29 HR/9, 23.5 %, 10.6 BB%, .386 BABIP, 4.42 xFIP, and a 28.7 Hard%. I think Cruz might go a little under the radar tonight and I love him as a one off in the outfield tonight.
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Free Square of the Night
Huge slate tonight with a ton of money on the line across the industry tonight. I hope we narrowed down a few places or players we can target tonight. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my free square pick, I am going to go with Mariners outfielder Nelson Cruz tonight! Good luck Army!
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