Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
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Tonight
After a long all-star break, we start off the second half of the MLB season with a solid 15 game slate. On the pitching side of things, we have Carlos Carrasco and Jacob DeGrom leading the way as the two high priced aces of the night. On the hitting side of things, we have an interesting situation as there are not a ton of high implied team totals and no team is really head and shoulders above the rest. Let’s get back to it and dive right into the action:
Free Squares
- Jon Gray SP COL ($7,900)
- Jon Gray and the Colorado Rockies will take on the New York Mets at Citi Field tonight. The Rockies are currently +128 underdogs and the Mets have an implied run total sitting at right around 4.30 runs. Gray has only pitched in 5 games this season but he is coming off a solid 2016 campaign. Let’s take a look at his advanced numbers so far this keeping in mind the small sample size: .364 wOBA given up to lefties, .255 wOBA given up to righties, 22.6 K%, 8.5 BB%, .338 BABIP, 27.4 Hard%, 4.02 SIERA, and a 3.61 xFIP. He will be taking on the New York Mets who have been averaging right around 4.72 runs per game this season. They have the following ranks against right-handed pitchers this season: 7th in BB%, 27th in K%, 11th in OPS, 7th in ISO, 13th in wOBA, and a 10th in wRC+. The Mets are a decent hitting team but I am very intrigued with Jon Gray at such a low price tonight. We saw the type of upside he brought to games last season and I am going to lock him at the SP2 position on DraftKings at a very affordable price.
- Wil Myers 1B SDP ($3,400)
- Wil Myers and the San Deigo Padres will take on the San Francisco Giants and pitcher Johnny Cueto tonight at Petco Park tonight. The Padres have an implied run total sitting at right around 3.96 runs. Myers has been having a solid season so far and has been hitting the ball well from both sides of the plate. Let’s take a look at his advanced numbers against right handed pitching on the season: 8.4 BB%, 29.1 K%, .798 OPS, .223 ISO, .318 BABIP, .335 wOBA, 108 wRC+, and a 39.4 Hard%. He will be facing Johnny Cueto who has the following numbers against right handed bats: .343 wOBA, 1.69 HR/9, 20.3 K%, 9.7 BB%, 4.53 xFIP, and a 32.4 Hard%. Cueto is not having the dominant year we are used to seeing from him. I really like Myers as a one off tonight as Cueto has given up a number of home runs on the season. He has a ton of upside at a very affordable price tonight.
- Corey Dickerson OF TB ($3,500)
- Corey Dickerson and the Tampa Bay Rays will take on the Los Angeles Angels and pitcher Ricky Nolasco tonight at Angels Stadium. Corey Dickerson has had a solid year and has been crushing right handed pitchers. Let’s take a look at his numbers vs. righties on the season: 6.3 BB%, 19.4 K%, .917 OPS, .251 ISO, .341 BABIP, .381 wOBA, 142 wRC+. and a 37.1 Hard%. Like I said earlier he has dominant numbers against right handed pithcing this season. He will be facing Ricky Nolasco who has the following numbers against left handed bats: .345 wOBA, 1.78 HR/9, 16.6 K%, 9.9 BB%, 5.50 xFIP, and a 34.6 Hard%. Nolasco has really struggled against lefties which means a good matchup for Dickerson tonight. I love Dickerson as a one off tonight as he has been priced very affordably tonight. He will be batting 2nd in the order which means a lot of fantasy production opportunities for him tonight. I also do not mind a Rays stack as Nolasco has been pretty bad this season.
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Free Square of the Night
We are back and have a great slate ahead of us tonight. This is going to be a great tournament slate as ownership is going to be all over the place tonight. I hope we narrowed down a few places or players we can target tonight. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my free square pick, I am going to go with Padres infielder Wil Myers tonight! Good luck Army!
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