Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
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Recap
For our pitcher free square last night we had Marco Estrada who did not have a great outing with a -7.70 DKFP score. Our infielder free square was Joe Mauer who had 5 DKFP which was good enough for 1.4x value. Our outfielder free square was Mark Trumbo who didn’t do anything at the plate last night. This was one of our least successful nights of the year for the free squares, but days like this will happen especially in MLB. We look back at where we made mistakes and we move on from there.
Tonight
Fortunately for us, we have a solid 11-game slate ahead of us for tonight. On the pitching side of things tonight we have 3 arms over $10,000 and after that, there is quite a drop-off. On the hitting side of things tonight the Twins have the highest implied run total sitting at right around 5.6 runs and after them, it is quite balanced. Let’s dive right into this slate:
Free Squares
- Dylan Bundy SP BAL ($7,700)
- Dylan Bundy and the Baltimore Orioles will take on the Chicago White Sox tonight at Guaranteed Rate Field tonight. The Orioles are currently -125 favorites and the White Sox have an implied run total sitting at right around 4.53 runs. Bundy has thrown in 13 games so far this season and is averaging right around 16.5 DKFPPG. Let’s take a look at his advanced numbers: .317 wOBA given up to lefties, .287 wOBA given up to righties, 18.0 K%, 7.0 BB%, .258 BABIP, 34.0 Hard%, 4.83 SIERA, and a 4.95 xFIP. He will be taking on the Chicago White Sox who have been averaging right around 4.48 runs per game this season. The White Sox have the following ranks against right-handed pitching this season: 30th in BB%, 9th in K%, 28th in OPS, 24th in ISO, 19th in BABIP, 28th in wOBA, and 27th in wRC+. We have been attacking the White Sox all year as they have some of the worst numbers against right-handed pitching in the MLB. Bundy isn’t an elite pitcher by any means but for a value pitcher, I think he is one of the best SP2 options on Draftkings tonight.
- Miguel Cabrera 1B DET ($3,400)
- Miguel Cabrera and the Detroit Tigers will take on the Arizona Diamondbacks and pitcher Taijuan Walker tonight at Comerica Park. The Tigers have an implied run total sitting at right around 4.86 runs tonight. Cabrera has had a slower season than we are accustomed to seeing from him but I think he has a great matchup and price tonight against the Diamondbacks. Let’s take a look and see how he has fared against right-handed pitching so far this season: 12.5 BB%, 19.0 K%, .761 OPS, .160, .287 BABIP, .325 wOBA, and a 101 wRC+. Even in a perceived down year he still has some very solid numbers. He will be facing right-hander Taijuan Walker who has the following number vs. righties so far this season: .273 wOBA, 19.3 K%, 5.3 BB%, 4.09 xFIP and a 32.1 Hard%. Pretty average numbers but I think the Tigers can get to him tonight. I simply think Cabrera is too cheap tonight and I love him as a very affordable one off and I do not mind a Tigers stack.
- Max Kepler OF MIN ($3,400)
- Max Kepler and the Minnesota Twins will take on the Seattle Mariners and pitcher Sam Gaviglio tonight at Target Field. The Twins have an implied run total sitting at right around 5.57 runs as of right now. Kepler has had an up and down season but possesses a ton of upside potential. Let’s take a look at his advanced numbers. vs. right-handed pitching so far this season: 9.4 BB%, 17.3 K%, .867 OPS, .218 ISO, .367 wOBA, 130 wRC+, and a 39.9 Hard%. He has some very solid power numbers against right-handed pitching. He will be going up against Sam Gaviglio who has the following numbers vs. left-handed bats on the season so far: .319 wOBA, 2.19 HR/9, 14.0 K%, 8.0 BB%, .200 BABIP, 5.05 xFIP, and a 42.1 Hard%. There is a good reason this game is one of the highest totals of the day as I expect the Twins to put up a ton of runs and be highly owned tonight. Kepler always has the ability to go off and at his price tonight I think he is a no-brainer play in the outfield tonight.
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Free Square of the Night
This should be a fun slate tonight as I don’t think it is going to be as hard to make lineups as the previous days. 11-game slates are some of my favorites as there are a lot of games but not an overwhelming amount. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my free square pick, I am going to go with Tigers infielder Miguel Cabrera tonight! Good luck Army!
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