Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
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Recap
For our pitcher free square last night we had Luis Perdomo who had a solid outing with 15.60 DKFP which was good enough for 2.5x value. Our infielder free square was Will Myers who had 5 DKFP which was good enough for 1.4x value. Our outfielder free square was Mark Trumbo who had a solid outing netting us 14 DKFP which was good enough for 3.8x value!
Tonight
We get back on the grind tonight in which we have a monster 14 game Tuesday slate ahead of us tonight. On the pitching side of things this slate we have a trio of high-priced studs taking the mound tonight, On the hitting side of the slate we have a bunch of teams with some high implied totals. Let’s dive into this slate and find some free squares:
Free Squares
- Marco Estrada SP TOR ($8,000)
- Marco Estrada and the Toronto Blue Jays will take on the Tampa Bay Rays at home tonight at the Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays are -150 favorites currently and the Rays have an implied total sitting at right around 4.19 runs. Estrada has thrown in 13 games this season with some varying success. He also has thrown against the Rays twice this season. Let’s take a look at his advanced numbers this season: .286 wOBA given up to lefties, .335 wOBA given up to righties, 27.6 K%, 6.1 BB%, .314 BABIP, 30.4 Hard%, 3.50 SIERA, and a 3.79 xFIP. He has some really solid advanced numbers. He will face the Rays for the third time this season and they have been averaging right around 4.70 runs this season. They have the following ranks against right-handed pitching this season: 11th in BB%, 2nd in K%, 5th in OPS, 2nd in ISO, 5th in wOBA, and 3rd in wRC+. The Rays are a team who can hit righties extremely well but also are prone to strikeout a ton. This matchup has some definite risk tonight but also has a ton of upside for Estrada as well tonight. I think for his numbers he is priced too low and I will take a shot on him tonight.
- Joe Mauer 1B MIN ($3,700)
- Joe Mauer and the Minnesota Twins will take on the Seattle Mariners and pitcher Christian Bergman at Target Field tonight. The Twins have an implied run-total sitting at right around 5.25 runs. Mauer started off the year cold but has picked it up recently. He has the following advanced numbers vs. right-handed pitchers: 10.6 BB%, 12.8 K%, .825 OPS, .143 ISO, .357 wOBA, and a 123 wRC+. A very solid line for Mauer this year. He will be taking on Christian Bergman who has been all over the place this season. He has the following numbers against lefties this season: .288 wOBA, 1.50 HR/9, 17.1 K%, 8.6 BB%, 4.72 xFIP, .225 BABIP, and a 28.9 Hard%. He doesn’t have the best numbers against lefties and this is with being pretty lucky as well. I love Mauer as a one-off tonight and do not mind rolling out a Twins stack at all tonight.
- Mark Trumbo OF BAL ($3,400)
- Mark Trumbo makes his way back onto the free squares for the second day in a row. The Orioles will take on the Chicago White Sox and pitcher Derek Holland at Guaranteed Rate Field tonight. The Orioles have a 5.25 implied run total. Trumbo is having a pretty solid season and had a solid game last night. He has the following numbers vs. left-handed pitching this season: 7.1 BB%, 22.4 K%, .734 OPS, .127 ISO, .320 wOBA, 97 wRC+, and a 33.3 Hard%. He will be facing Derek Holland who has the following numbers vs. right-handed batters this season: .381 wOBA, 2.26 HR/9, 18.3 K%, 10.6 BB%, 5.45 xFIP, and a 44.4 Hard%. Holland gets hit hard against lefties and given up a lot of home runs. This is a really great matchup for Trumbo tonight and I would not be surprised if he hits a homer tonight. I love Trumbo as a real affordable one off in the outfield and I love lefty Baltimore Bats against Holland tonight.
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Free Square of the Night
We have a huge slate tonight where we are going to have a lot of ways where we can go with regards to roster construction. That means this is a great slate for playing tournaments tonight. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my free square pick, I am going to go with Orioles outfielder Mark Trumbo tonight! Good luck Army!
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