Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
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Tonight
Hope everyone had a good weekend, but it’s time to get back on the DFS grind. To start off the week we have a solid 9-game slate to start off the week. On the pitching side of things tonight we have DeGrom and Strasburg as the big arms taking the mound and then it drops off from there. On the hitting side of things, the Red Sox have the largest implied total of the day with a 6.5 implied run total. There are some other teams with high implied totals as well. Let’s not waste any time and dive right into this slate:
Free Squares
- Luis Perdomo SP SDP ($6,300)
- Luis Perdomo and the San Diego Padres will take on the Cincinnati Reds at Petco Park tonight. The Padres are currently -120 favorites and the Reds have an implied run total sitting at right around 4.12 runs. Perdomo was having a solid season until a bad outing in his last start did not go well. Let’s take a look at his advanced numbers to see how he is doing so far this year: .375 wOBA given up to lefties, .310 wOBA given up to righties, 19.8 K%, 8.0 BB%, 30.1 Hard%, 3.73 SIERA, and a 3.84 xFIP. He has a pretty solid stat line thus far in the season. He will be taking on the Cincinnati Reds who have been averaging right around 5.08 runs per game. They have the following ranks against right-handed pitching this season: 19th in BB%, 17th in K%, 6th in OPS, 9th in ISO, 6th in wOBA, and 9th in wRC+. The Reds are a solid hitting team against right-handed pitching this season. This may not be the most optimal matchup for Perdomo tonight, but does have the advantage of pitching in a pitchers park and Vegas has a relatively low implied total for the Reds. I think if you are going to want to fit some expensive bats in your are going to have to save salary at SP2. If you go that route I think Perdomo is your best option.
- Will Myers 1B SDP ($3,600)
- Will Myers and the San Diego Padres will take on the Cincinnati Reds and pitcher Bronson Arroyo tonight at Petco Park. The Padres have an implied run total sitting at right around 4.39 runs. Will Myers has been having a pretty solid season and always has extreme upside. Let’s take a look at his advanced numbers against right-handed pitching this season: 5.9 BB%, 29.2 K%, .794 OPS, .235 ISO, .317 BABIP, .331 wOBA, and a 107 wRC+. I usually don’t like to take righty vs. righty but Myers has been hitting righties well this season. He also has the benefit of going up against Bronson Arroyo who has the following numbers against right-handed hitters this season: .383 wOBA, 2.08 HR/9, 14.8 K%, 4.7 BB%, .310 BABIP, 5.07 xFIP, and a 32.6 Hard%. Arroyo is a guy who I am going to target with both right and left handed bats from the Padres tonight. Myers is a guy who bats in the heart of the lineup for Padres and will have plenty of fantasy opportunities tonight as I think the Padres are going to put up some runs tonight.
- Mark Trumbo OF BAL ($3,700)
- Mark Trumbo and the Baltimore Orioles will take on the Chicago White Sox and pitcher Mike Pelfrey tonight at Guaranteed Rate Field. The Orioles have an implied run total sitting at right around 5.41 runs. Trumbo has been having a pretty streaky year so far this year. Let’s take a look and see how he has fared against right-handed pitching so far this season: 8.9 BB%, 18.4 K%, .705 OPS, .147 ISO, .280 BABIP, .307 wOBA, 89 wRC+, and a 30.8 Hard%. Pretty good numbers but what makes Trumbo even more interesting is his matchup against gas can Mike Pelfrey. Pelfrey has pitched okay this year vs righties but I think he is going to regress to his 2016 numbers: 9.4 K%, 8.3 BB%, .325 BABIP, 5.01 xFIP, and a 26.3 Hard%. I think the Orioles are going to put up a bunch of runs against Pelfrey and the Sox tonight as Vegas seems to imply as well. Trumbo is pretty cheap looking at the matchup tonight and he makes a great one off or he has to be a part of your Orioles stack.
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Free Square of the Night
We start off the week with an interesting slate as I think roster construction may be a little tricky tonight. Either way, it is going to be a good GPP slate and one that I expect to be high scoring We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my free square pick, I am going to go with Padre’s first baseman Will Myers tonight! Good luck Army!
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