Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
Recap
For our pitcher free square, last night we had Justin Verlander had a solid outing in which he netted 19.75 DKFP which was good enough for 2.4x value. Our infielder free square was Carlos Santana who had an okay night and netted 7 DKFP which was good enough for 2.2x value! Our outfielder free square was Jose Bautista who had 6 DKFP which was good enough for 1.5x value. I want to give a special shoutout to one of our member who absolutely crushed it last night. Congrats to @wildcatwr who got 2nd place for $10,000 in the 200K MLB Mini Bat Flip on Draftkings last night:
(Congrats!)
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Tonight
After a large slate yesterday we follow it up with a nice 13-game sized slate on this Wednesday. On the pitching side of things we just have two guys priced over 10k and not a ton of huge aces taking the mound tonight. On the hitting side of things tonight we have the Houston Astros leading the way but not by much as there are a lot of teams who have close implied totals. Let’s dive right into this slate:
Free Squares
- Ivan Nova SP PIT ($6,400)
- Ivan Nova and the Pittsburgh Pirates will take on the Tampa Bay Rays at home at PNC Park. The Pirates are currently -124 favorites and the Rays have an implied run total sitting at right around 4.03 runs. Nova has been having a pretty consistent season so far. He has the following advanced numbers on the season: .321 wOBA given up to lefties, .265 wOBA given up to righties, 14.4 K%, 2.7 BB%, .274 BABIP, 32.1 Hard%, 4.36 SIERA, and a 4.00 xFIP. He will be taking on the Tampa Bay Rays who have averaged 4.91 runs per game this season. They have the following ranks against right-handed pitching this season: 10th in BB%, 2nd in K%, 5th in OPS, T1 in ISO, 5th in wOBA, and 3rd in wRC+. The Rays are a really solid hitting team but they also have one of the highest K% in the league. There is definitely some risk in this matchup, but I think for the price Nova can rack up some K’s and reach or exceed value. His price allows you to fit in a lot of higher priced bats as well.
- Dustin Pedroia 2B BOS ($3,200)
- Dustin Pedroia and the Boston Red Sox will take on the Minnesota Twins and pitcher Adalberto Meija tonight at Fenway Park. I believe this is the first time Pedroia has made the free squares and he has been having a pretty solid year so far. Let’s take a look at his advanced numbers left-handed pitching: 21.6 BB%, 8.1 K%, .917 OPS, .111 ISO, .360 BABIP, .395 wOBA, 144 wRC+, and a 50.0 Hard%. He has some dominant numbers against lefties this season. He will be taking on Adalberto Meija who has the following numbers vs. righties this season: .350 wOBA, 1.63 HR/9, 19.1 K%, 13.9 BB%, 5.44 xFIP, and a 36.8 Hard%. He has pretty bad numbers against righties this season and this is a great matchup for Pedroia and all the Boston righties. I think for the matchup and the huge implied total Pedroia is simply priced too low tonight. He is very affordable as a one off at second base and I love a Red Sox stack tonight.
- Kevin Pillar OF TOR ($3,700)
- Kevin Pillar and the Toronto Blue Jays will take on the Baltimore Orioles and pitcher Wade Miley tonight at the Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays have an implied run total sitting at right around 5.54 runs. Pillar has been having a great year and I expect that to continue tonight against Miley and the O’s. He has the following numbers vs. lefties this season: 7.5 BB%, 11.3 K%, 1.051 OPS, .278 ISO, .377 BABIP, .436 wOBA, 175 wRC+, and a 40.6 Hard%. I think it’s safe to say Pillar has been mashing lefties this season. He gets to face Wade Miley who has the following numbers vs. righties: .259 wOBA, 25.0 K%, 14.6 BB%, .214 BABIP, 4.08 xFIP, and a 34.5 Hard%. Not the worst numbers but Miley is not a great pitcher and I think this is a great matchup for the lefty tonight. He is a little bit more pricey but I think he can easily exceed value and has a great matchup tonight.
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Free Square of the Night
Another really good sized slate tonight and another one I think is going to be great for GPP. I don’t think you have to get too contrarian tonight as I believe people will be all over the place tonight. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my free square pick, I am going to go with Blue Jays outfielder Kevin Pillar tonight! Good luck Army!
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