Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
Recap
For our pitcher free square, last night we had Jeff Samardzija had a solid outing in which he netted 20.50 DKFP which was good enough for 2.5x value. Our infielder free square was Tim Anderson who had a great performance netted 21 DKFP which was good enough for 7x value! Our outfielder free square was Brandon Belt who had 14 DKFP which was good enough for 3.9x value. 3/3 on the free squares last night I hope some of you were on these plays last night.
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Tonight
After a short slate on Monday, we have a monster Tuesday slate with 15 games on the docket. On the pitching side of things we have Max Scherzer two other guys priced above 10k and after that, it is pretty spread out. On the hitting side of things, we have the Red Sox leading the way with the highest implied run total and it is pretty even after that. Let’s dive into this huge slate:
Free Squares
- Justin Verlander SP DET ($8,400)
- Justin Verlander and the Detroit Tigers will take on the Kansa City Royals at home at Comerica Park tonight. Verlander and the Tigers are currently -168 favorites and the Royals have an implied run total sitting at right around 3.93 runs. Verlander has had an up and down season but is coming off of two consistent starts. He has the following advanced numbers on the year: .316 wOBA given up to lefties, .320 wOBA given up to righties, 22.3 K%, 11.2 BB%, .303 BABIP, 37.6 Hard%, 4.78 SIERA, and a 5.02 xFIP. His numbers are a little bit high for the year but I like his matchup tonight against the Royals. The Royals have the following ranks against right-handed pitching on the season: 29th in BB%, 17th in K%, 26th in OPS, 20th in ISO, 26th in wOBA, and a 27th in wRC+. Verlander hasn’t been having the dominant season that we are used to seeing for him. In saying that I love that matchup against a really bad hitting team in the Royals. I think he is affordable and can have a solid night at his price tag tonight. He makes a great SP2 option on Draftkings tonight.
- Carlos Santana 1B CLE ($3,200)
- Carlos Santana and the Cleveland Indians will take on the Texas Rangers and pitcher Tyson Ross at Progressive Field tonight. The Indians have a high implied run total sitting at right around 5.54 runs. Carlos Santana has been having a pretty solid year and he and the Cleveland bats have started to really heat up as of late. He has the following numbers vs. right-handed pitching on the season: 14.1 BB%, 19.1 K%, .784 OPS, .189 ISO, .283 BABIP, .336 wOBA, 107 wRC+, and a 31.1 Hard%. He will be taking on Tyson Ross who has only thrown in two games this season with one start in which he got blown up and one start in which fared pretty well. He hasn’t put up a significant sample size since around 2015 but judging by the Vegas implied total we can assume this is a great matchup for Santana and the Indians as a whole. Santana is really cheap tonight and I love him as a one-off at first base. I also like an Indians stack as I expect them to put up a big number against Tyson Ross tonight.
- Jose Bautista OF TOR ($3,900)
- Jose Bautista and the Toronto Blue Jays will take on the Baltimore Orioles and pitcher Kevin Gausman at the Rogers Centre tonight. The Blue Jays have an implied run total sitting at right around 5.48 runs. Bautista is having a pretty solid season hitting in the leadoff spot for the Blue Jays. He has the following numbers against right-handed pitching this season: 13.2 BB%, 22.0 K%, .843 OPS, .218 ISO, .293 BABIP, .360 wOBA, 123 wRC+, and a 33.3 Hard%. He is one of the weird players who has reverse splits. He will be taking on Kevin Gausman who has the following numbers against right-handed batters on the season: .418 wOBA, 1.70 HR/9, 18.2 K%, 7.1 BB%, .427 BABIP, 4.52 xFIP, and a 34.3 Hard%. This is a juicy matchup for Bautista and the entire Blue Jays team tonight. He is a bit pricey for a free square but I think he still has some value tonight. I love Bautista as a one-off in the outfield and love a Blue Jays stack tonight.
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Free Square of the Night
Huge slate tonight and one that I think makes out great for some GPP action tonight. I also think ownership will be pretty spread out tonight which is also nice for tournaments. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my free square pick, I am going to go with Blue Jays outfielder Jose Bautista tonight! Good luck Army!
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