Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
Recap
For our pitcher free square, last night we had Ivan Nova who only had 7.25 DKFP which was only good enough for right around 1.1x value. Our infielder free square was Dustin Pedroia who had 4 DKFP which was 1.3x value. Our outfielder free square was Kevin Pillar who had 3 DKFP which was 0.8x value. Not the greatest free square night for us but we move on to the next day.
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Tonight
After a couple large slates in a row, we have a split Thursday slate in which I will be focusing in on the main slate. On the pitching side of thi, gs we have Clayton Kershaw and Chris Archer as the two aces who will take the mound. On the hitting side of things we have the Boston Red Sox and the Toronto Blue Jays leading the way with the highest implied totals. Let’s dive right into this short slate:
Free Squares
- David Price SP BOS ($7,700)
- David Price and the Boston Red Sox will take on the Minnesota Twins at Fenway Park tonight. The Red Sox are currently -196 favorites and the Twins have an implied run total sitting at right around 4.17 runs. Since coming back from injury Price has had a couple of solid outings and a couple of outings that did not go to plan. Let’s take a look at his advanced numbers so far this year: .273 wOBA given up to lefties, .343 wOBA given up to righties, 19.3 K%, 10.0 BB%, .250 BABIP, 4.91 SIERA, 32.0 Hard%, and a 5.13 xFIP. A bit of a rough start to the season for Price since coming back from injury. He will be facing the Minnesota Twins who have the following ranks against lefties: 9th in BB%, 18th in K%, 18th in OPS, 25th in ISO, 19th in wOBA, and 19th in wRC+. Price’s numbers haven’t been great so far this season, but he has a very favorable matchup against a bad lefty hitting Twins team. I think his numbers are going to improve throughout the rest of the season and it starts tonight against the Twins.
- Kendrys Morales 1B KC ($3,700)
- Kendrys Morales and the Toronto Blue Jays will take on the Baltimore Orioles and pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez tonight at the Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays have one of the highest implied run totals of the night at 5.76 runs. Morales has been having a pretty decent year and every time he walks up to the plate we know his power potential. Let’s take a look at his advanced numbers vs. righties so far this season: 6.6 BB%, 20.7 K%, .749 OPS, .206 ISO, .317 wOBA, and a 94 wRC+. He also has a bit of familiarity with Ubaldo as he has hit 2 HRs off him in 21 ABs with a solid stat line against him. Speaking of Ubaldo let’s see how he has fared against lefties on the year: .435 wOBA, 3.67 HR/9, 20.6 K%, 14.5 BB%, .284 BABIP, 5.24 xFIP, and a 32.9 Hard%. Ubaldo has been giving up an insane amount of homers to lefties which make this a juicy matchup for Morales tonight. I love Morales at first base tonight and love rolling out a Blue Jays stack as well.
- Manuel Margot OF SDP ($3,100)
- Manuel Margot and the San Diego Padres will take on the Atlanta Braves and pitcher Jaime Garcia at Petco Park tonight. The Padres have an implied run total sitting at right around 4.10 runs. Margot has been having a pretty solid season so far and is coming off a great game against Bartolo Colon last night. Let’s take a look at how he has fared against left-handed pitching on the season: 10.9 BB%, 12.7 K%, .636 OPS, .102 ISO, .283 wOBA, 74 wRC+, and a 21.4 Hard%. He will be taking on pitcher Jaime Garcia who has the following numbers vs. righties on the season: .310 wOBA, 1.05 HR/9, 15.4 K%, 10.2 BB%, 4.53 xFIP, and a 27.8 Hard%. I think I am a little bit higher on the Padres than other people tonight. Margot will bat from the leadoff spot most likely tonight and I love his opportunity for fantasy production. He is cheap and I think he is in a good matchup tonight. I love him as an affordable one-off in the outfield tonight.
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Free Square of the Night
Short slate tonight but hopefully I narrowed down some spots which we can look to attack tonight. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my free square pick, I am going to go with Blue Jays infielder Kendrys Morales tonight! Good luck Army!
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